Month: April 2010

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are finally here and 16 teams now have a chance to win it all. All the experts will be making their predictions as to who will win each series in the next few days and I figure I might as well make my own. I’m a little sick of the classic arguments so I like to look at some statistics to prove my points.

First off, Behind the Net Hockey published an excellent article this morning which looks at save percentage in the regular season and in the playoffs. The conclusion was that goaltenders who win the cup weren’t better in the regular season, they simply got hot in the playoffs. It takes a hot goaltender to win it all but his statistics prove that anyone can get hot. With that said, the argument “Washington doesn’t have good enough goaltending to win the cup” is a moot one.

Over the last few weeks I looked at points per game after March 1st and mentioned that over the last three years, they have been excellent at predicting the winners of each series in the playoffs. Here is the updated chart:

	GP	PTS/GP
DET	21	1.62
WSH	20	1.55
PHX	19	1.47
NSH	21	1.38
VAN	21	1.29
MTL	19	1.26
PIT	20	1.25
NJD	21	1.24
SJS	20	1.20
CHI	21	1.19
BUF	22	1.18
BOS	22	1.18
LAK	21	1.10
PHI	22	0.95
OTT	19	0.95
COL	21	0.90

Over the last three years, teams with an advantage of at least 0.25 in pts per game after March 1st are 14-2. As you can see, no team is within 0.25 pts of Washington in the Eastern Conference while Phoenix and Nashville are the only ones within 0.25 of Detroit. One thing you can’t forget however is that the Penguins played many of those games without Evgeni Malkin and Sergei Gonchar. It’s interesting to note that this season the Penguins were 37-15-5 with all three in the lineup and only 10-13-2 when one of them was missing. That’s probably something we could do with most teams but it’s particularly notable for the Penguins.

Anyways, with that said, based on the 0.25 rule, there are four series that are pretty much sure things. The Washington Capitals, New Jersey Devils, Pittsburgh Penguins and San Jose Sharks should all win their series. There aren’t really any surprises right now but this statistic will predict a few upsets in the second round.

Amongst the other series, the Nashville Predators, Vancouver Canucks and Detroit Red Wings are the favourites while the Buffalo Sabres and Boston Bruins have the exact same record since March 1st.

Last week I also wrote an article about the 5 Real Stanley Cup Contenders. In that article, I looked at the last 16 teams that participated in the conference finals to see what they had in common. Here are some interesting statistics from those 16 teams and the list of teams that do no respect those rules:

-All 16 of them had at least 95 points in the regular season.
Teams that do not respect this rule: Boston, Montreal, Ottawa and Philadelphia.

-15 of the 16 had a goal differential of at least +10
Teams that do not respect this rule: Boston, Montreal, Nashville and Ottawa.

-All 16 of them had at least 46 points at home.
Teams that do not respect this rule: Boston and Montreal.

-All 16 of them had at least 41 points on the road.
Teams that do not respect this rule: Ottawa, Philadelphia and Vancouver.

-All 16 of them ranked in the top half of the league in goals per game.
Teams that do not respect this rule: Boston, Montreal, Nashville, New Jersey and Phoenix.

-15 of the 16 had at least 1.10 pts per game after March 1st
Teams that do not respect this rule: Colorado, Ottawa and Philadelphia.

If you put all that together, it leaves only seven teams with a chance to make it to the conference finals:
Eastern Conference: Buffalo Sabres, Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals.
Western Conference: Chicago Blackhawks, Detroit Red Wings, Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks.

The final statistic I want to look at is which teams have benefited from hot goaltending since March 1st. I mentioned earlier that a team needs a hot goaltender in the playoffs but it’s not because he was hot in the season that he will be hot in the playoffs. However, in order to predict who might be hot in the playoffs, I thought it would be a good idea to see who has been hot in the past six weeks:

TEAM	Total	Mar & Apr	Diff
Los Angeles	0.907	0.916	0.009
Phoenix	0.919	0.928	0.009
Nashville	0.908	0.917	0.009
Boston	0.922	0.929	0.007
Montreal	0.917	0.922	0.005
New Jersey	0.916	0.919	0.003
Washington	0.910	0.912	0.002
Philadelphia	0.905	0.902	-0.003
Buffalo	0.922	0.919	-0.003
Detroit	0.914	0.909	-0.005
Ottawa	0.900	0.893	-0.007
Pittsburgh	0.900	0.890	-0.010
Chicago	0.901	0.891	-0.010
Vancouver	0.910	0.895	-0.015
San Jose	0.919	0.899	-0.020
Colorado	0.913	0.892	-0.021

As you can see, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Vancouver, San Jose and Colorado have all had very weak goaltending in the past six weeks which leads me to believe that they will struggle in the playoffs.

With all of that said, here are my predictions for the first round of the playoffs:

Washington Capitals over the Montreal Canadiens – 6 games
New Jersey Devils over the Philadelphia Flyers – 5 games
Boston Bruins over the Buffalo Sabres – 7 games
Pittsburgh Penguins over the Ottawa Senators – 4 games

San Jose Sharks over the Colorado Avalanche – 5 games
Nashville Predators over the Chicago Blackhawks – 6 games
Vancouver Canucks over the Los Angeles Kings – 6 games
Detroit Red Wings over the Phoenix Coyotes – 7 games

My two upsets are the Bruins over the Sabres and the Predators over the Blackhawks. Tuukka Rask has been solid all year long but has been especially good in the past few weeks. I think he could outplay Ryan Miller and take the Bruins to the second round. As for the Predators they have been one of the best teams in the NHL in the past few weeks and have also had great goaltending of late. The Blackhawks have won with poor goaltending all year long but it’s been especially poor in the past six weeks and I think they’ll be knocked out early.

Since making it to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2005-2006, the Edmonton Oilers have missed the playoffs for four straight years and now find themselves at the bottom of the NHL. The good news for the Oilers is they are guaranteed to get either Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin but let’s see if it will be enough to turn things around in the short run.

The good news for the Oilers is that for the past three years, their payroll has been within 2 million of the salary cap. They have plenty of money to spend, they just need to find the right players. Let’s take a look at the 13 players they currently have under contract for next season:

Shawn Horcoff – F – $5,500,000 – He is the most used forward on the Oilers but yet has only 36 points in 75 games. He is a pretty good defensive player but needs to be MUCH better offensively – Overpaid.

Sheldon Souray – D – $5,400,000 – All Montreal Canadiens fans knew this was an awful signing for the Oilers when it happened and now Oilers fans know it too. Even when he scores 20 goals in a season, Souray isn’t worth his salary because of his poor defensive play – Overpaid.

Dustin Penner – F – $4,250,000 – He was one of the few bright spots for the Oilers this season. Penner had a career year despite the team’s record, let’s hope he can keep it up next year – Good value.

Ales Hemsky – F – $4,100,000 – In the past five years, Ales Hemsky has scored over 0.9 points per game. The better news for the Oilers is that he is still only 26 years old and has two years left on his deal – Good value.

Ryan Whitney – D – $4,000,000 – It’s unfortunate that a defenseman who once had a very bright future has played with three different teams in the past two years. However, since joining the Oilers, Whitney has 7 points in 17 games and averages over 25 minutes per game including 3 on the PK – Good value.

Tom Gilbert – D – $4,000,000 – He’s had a very difficult season offensively but was still the most used defenseman by the Oilers and has looked much better of late with Ryan Whitney – Slightly Overpaid

Nikolai Khabibulin – G – $3,750,000 – He has a 0.913 save percentage in 110 games over the past three seasons. He’s not amongst the league’s best anymore but he’s an above average goalie at a decent salary – Fair value.

Patrick O’Sullivan – F – $2,925,000 – Only 33 points in 71 games and worst in the league by far with -37, not a whole lot more to say – Overpaid

Robert Nilsson – F – $2,000,000 – He’s poor defensively and hasn’t developed offensively – Overpaid

Ethan Moreau – F – $2,000,000 – He’s another player who had a poor offensive season. He is a decent defensive player but not worth his salary – Overpaid

Ladislav Smid – D – $1,300,000 – It takes a long time for defensive defensemen to develop but once they do, they are worth every penny. Smid still has a lot of work to do but he was an impressive +5 this year – Fair value

Taylor Chorney – D – $942,000 – He’s an offensive defenseman who isn’t scoring in the AHL and isn’t scoring in the NHL – Fair value.

Zach Stortini – F – $700,000 – He has limited skills but is a very hard worker and will be a solid fourth liner for a long time – Good value.

Here’s what you have when you put all that together:
Great value: 0
Good value: 4
Fair value: 2
Slightly overpaid: 1
Overpaid: 5

Total Cap Hit: $40,867,000

Sure they have a few overpaid players but overall it’s not as bad as you may think. Amongst the restricted free agents, they have Gilbert Brule, Sam Gagner and Andrew Cogliano. All three are still under 23 years old and should have a good future with this team. Once the Oilers sign these players along with Marc-Antoine Pouliot, Ryan Potulny, Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers and either Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin, the Oilers payroll should be somewhere between 51 and 53 million dollars. The Oilers will also bring up Jordan Eberle who could be an impact player in his first year in the NHL and will be a prime candidate for the Calder Trophy. Depending on the salary cap next year, they could have room to sign a veteran defensive defenseman like Willie Mitchell or at a cheaper price, guys like Mark Eaton or Jordan Leopold could be interesting.

As bad as the Oilers were this season, they were also very unlucky. The Edmonton Oilers started the year 10-11-3 until Nikolai Khabibulin and Ales Hemsky were injured. They then went an awful 16-35-5 over the next 56 games losing other important players to injuries over that period of time. With the addition of Hall or Seguin, a full season with Ryan Whitney, a healthy Khabibulin and Hemsky, as well as the development of young players like Brule, Gagner, Eberle, Cogliano and Smid, the Edmonton Oilers will move up the standings. I’d expect them to have somewhere between 80 and 85 points next year but with a little luck and a few pleasant surprises, the Oilers could even be fighting for a playoff spot.

Every year there are a number of teams that are said to be Stanley Cup contenders for whatever reasons, many of them are made up though. I decided to look at some statistics from the past four seasons to see what it takes to be a Stanley Cup contender. Unfortunately, because of the shootout rule that was added in 2005-06, it’s difficult to go back further than that so the sample size is somewhat small.

Here are some numbers for the last 16 teams that made it to a conference final:

-All 16 of them had at least 95 points in the regular season.
Teams that will not respect this rule: Boston, Montreal, NY Rangers and Philadelphia.

-15 of the 16 had a goal differential of at least +10
Teams that probably will not respect this rule: Boston, Montreal, Nashville, NY Rangers and Ottawa.

-All 16 of them had at least 46 points at home.
Teams that will not respect this rule: Boston and NY Rangers.

-All 16 of them had at least 41 points on the road.
Teams that will not respect this rule: Ottawa and Philadelphia.

-All 16 of them ranked in the top half of the league in goals per game.
Teams that probably will not respect this rule: Boston, Calgary, Montreal, New Jersey and Phoenix.

-15 of the 16 had at least 1.10 pts per game after March 1st
Teams that currently do not respect this rule: Boston, Chicago, Colorado, Los Angeles, Ottawa, Philadelphia and San Jose.

Based on those statistics, there are 5 teams that have a chance of making it to the conference finals.
Eastern Conference: Buffalo Sabres, Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals.
Western Conference: Detroit Red Wings and Vancouver Canucks

The Chicago Blackhawks and the San Jose Sharks could join this group if they get hot in the final few games, but, at this point, these five teams are the only ones with a chance of making it to the conference finals.

You will probably hear a lot of experts mention over the next few weeks that teams need a good goaltender to go far in the playoffs but remember that Chris Osgood had an 0.887 save percentage in the regular season last year and that Dwayne Roloson had an 0.905 save percentage when he took the Oilers to the Stanley Cup finals. Yes it takes good performances from your goaltender to go far in the playoffs but any of them can get hot in the playoffs.

On a final note we are currently running a promotion in our store where all RBK Platinum Practice Jerseys are on sale for $24.99. These jerseys normally retail for over $40. For group orders, the price can drop even lower.

Last night was a big one for the Montreal Canadiens, who defeated the Philadelphia Flyers, and for the Calgary Flames ,who defeated the Colorado Avalanche. Today, there are eleven games with four of the five teams fighting for a playoff spot in the East in action.

Atlanta Thrashers vs Pittsburgh Penguins
This is a huge game for both teams as the Penguins are trying to move into the second spot in the East while the Thrashers are trying to tie the Bruins and the Flyers with 82 points. It’s a must win for the Thrashers who cannot afford to lose this game and remain two points back with only three games left. Unfortunately for the Thrashers, Evgeni Malkin and Sergei Gonchar are expected to play today and should help the Penguins come away with the win.

Boston Bruins vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Believe it or not, the Leafs are 9-3-1 in their last 13 games (although 6 of those wins came in overtime or shootout). It won’t be an easy game for the Bruins but it’s an important one. A win would solidify their 7th place while a loss combined with a Rangers win would move them down to 9th. The Leafs are a pretty tough team to beat at home this season and I expect them to come away with another win but it’ll be a close one.

Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens looked awful in the third period against the Hurricanes and looked even worst in the third period last night against the Flyers but still managed to come away with the win, thanks to Jaroslav Halak. 12 goals in their last 7 games isn’t nearly enough and they’ll need to be better if they want to score even one goal against Ryan Miller. The Sabres looked like the easier match-up amongst the top four teams in the East but after winning seven of their last nine, they could hold on to the number two seed and be a very dangerous team in the playoffs.

New York Rangers vs Florida Panthers
The Rangers have crawled back into the playoff race with nine points out of ten in their last five games (including the last four on the road) and there’s no reason why they can’t come away with two more tonight. This is a must win for the Rangers but wouldn’t be out of it even with a loss as they have back to back games against the Flyers to end the season.

Nashville Predators vs Detroit Red Wings
Although this game is for the fifth spot in the Western Conference, it’s not such an important one because the Coyotes and Canucks are both very tough opponents. It will be a very exciting game however between the two hottest teams in the NHL. The Wings will look to extend their winning streak to eight games but the Predators have a chance to gain some respect with a win.