Category: Uncategorised

There’s been a lot of talk about the Phil Kessel trade in the last few days with the Boston Bruins locking up the second pick overall in the 2010 NHL Draft. In that trade, the Bruins also received a second round pick in 2010 and a first round pick in 2011.

Brian Burke has said a number of times over the past few days that he would still make this trade right now. To me, it seems a little far-fetched to be saying that when you could have had the number two overall pick in the NHL Draft. I’ll be the first one to say that prospects and picks are often overrated but in this case, I don’t think they are. Let’s take a look at the list of forwards selected in the first two picks of the NHL Draft from 1997 to 2008 and their statistics in the 2009-2010 season:

	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
Alex Ovechkin	60	44	52	96	1.60
Daniel Sedin	49	17	47	64	1.31
Sidney Crosby	67	45	41	86	1.28
Joe Thornton	66	17	62	79	1.20
Steven Stamkos	67	42	38	80	1.19
Ilya Kovalchuk	60	35	34	69	1.15
Patrick Kane	66	26	49	75	1.14
Evgeni Malkin	61	23	46	69	1.13
Dany Heatley	66	36	36	72	1.09
Patrick Marleau	66	40	30	70	1.06
Eric Staal	55	21	33	54	0.98
Vincent Lecavalier	67	19	41	60	0.90
Rick Nash	66	28	29	57	0.86
Jason Spezza	46	15	22	37	0.80
Bobby Ryan	67	28	24	52	0.78
Jordan Staal	68	19	26	45	0.66
James Van Riemsdyk	63	14	19	33	0.52
David Legwand	68	10	24	34	0.50
Patrik Stefan	0	0	0	0	0.00

In 2009-2010, Phil Kessel recorded 55 points in 70 games which is equal to 0.79 points per game. Kessel would therefore rank 15th out of 19 on that list. If we look at the names near the bottom of that list, Jordan Staal and James Van Riemsdyk are both younger than Kessel and most would argue that they will be as good or better than Kessel in a couple of years. In other words, of all the top two forwards chosen since 1997, Phil Kessel is better than only two (Legwand and Stefan) and pretty similar to three others (Bobby Ryan, Jordan Staal and James Van Riemsdyk).

If Hall or Seguin turns out to be like one of those three players, Boston would still get the edge because of the additional picks that they received in the trade. The Toronto Maple Leafs therefore have about an 11% chance (2 out of 19) of winning this trade. You can even assume that John Tavares will be better than Phil Kessel if you want and make it an even 10%.

I’m not saying it’s a bad trade, because if the Leafs had finished in 25th or better they probably would have gotten the edge. In all honesty, if I was Brian Burke, I probably would have made this trade when he made it, but there’s no way I’d do it now knowing what we know.

Every game matters in the NHL, whether it’s against the first place Capitals or the last place Oilers, but in the playoffs, it’s only about the 16 best teams. Moreover, some teams may have boosted their regular season record by playing in a weak division so I thought it would be interesting to see which playoff teams have the best record against other playoff teams.

The other thing I did is give a half win and a half loss for every game that went to overtime or shootout. The reason I did that is that there’s no shootout or 4 on 4 hockey in the playoffs so it doesn’t make sense to include them. I split them evenly because, if two teams are even after 60 minutes, they should have an equal chance of winning the game in overtime and I can’t just remove that game from the statistics. Here are the results I got:

	W	L	Win %
Washington Capitals	23	15	60.5%
Vancouver Canucks	24	16	60.0%
Detroit Red Wings	25.5	17.5	59.3%
New Jersey Devils	24.5	17.5	58.3%
San Jose Sharks	25	18	58.1%
Chicago Blackhawks	23.5	18.5	56.0%
Ottawa Senators	22.5	20.5	52.3%
Buffalo Sabres	22.5	22.5	50.0%
Phoenix Coyotes	20	21	48.8%
Los Angeles Kings	19.5	21.5	47.6%
Pittsburgh Penguins	18	23	43.9%
Colorado Avalanche	16.5	21.5	43.4%
Nashville Predators	17.5	23.5	42.7%
Montreal Canadiens	17.5	25.5	40.7%
Philadelphia Flyers	16.5	24.5	40.2%
Boston Bruins	17	27	38.6%

Make what you want of this, they’re only statistics but it’s a little worrisome to see the Pittsburgh Penguins at 43.9%. The Vancouver Canucks are also a team that you can’t underestimate as they are number one in the Western Conference in these standings.

Fantasy pools are becoming more and more popular for the playoffs so I figure I could help out a little by making my own projections. To do this, I used a combination of Vegas odds and my own predictions to come up with a number of projected games for each team. After that I used season statistics and simply applied points per game averages to every player. Here are the results:

Player	Team	Pos	Proj Pts	Player	Team	Pos	Proj Pts
Alex Ovechkin	WAS	LW	25.74	Ruslan Fedotenko	PIT	LW	6.23
Sidney Crosby	PIT	C	22.34	Kris Letang	PIT	D	6.14
Nicklas Backstrom	WAS	C	20.94	Tyler Myers	BUF	D	6.13
Alexander Semin	WAS	LW	19.56	Jason Spezza	OTT	C	6.09
Evgeni Malkin	PIT	C	19.08	Andy Greene	NJ	D	6.07
Henrik Sedin	VAN	C	17.94	Jason Demers	SJ	D	6.01
Daniel Sedin	VAN	LW	17.73	Paul Stastny	COL	C	5.95
Mike Green	WAS	D	17.23	Patrice Bergeron	BOS	C	5.95
Joe Thornton	SJ	C	16.45	Brian Rolston	NJ	RW	5.92
Patrick Kane	CHI	RW	15.02	Wojtek Wolski	PHO	LW	5.92
Patrick Marleau	SJ	C	14.78	Joe Corvo	WAS	D	5.88
Dany Heatley	SJ	LW	14.60	Tom Poti	WAS	D	5.83
Ilya Kovalchuk	NJ	LW	14.32	Dustin Byfuglien	CHI	RW	5.80
Henrik Zetterberg	DET	LW	13.81	Dave Bolland	CHI	C	5.74
Sergei Gonchar	PIT	D	13.39	Brooks Orpik	PIT	D	5.68
Mike Knuble	WAS	RW	13.06	Jochen Hecht	BUF	C	5.57
Zach Parise	NJ	LW	12.96	Ryan Smyth	LA	LW	5.53
Brooks Laich	WAS	C	12.86	Jason Arnott	NSH	C	5.50
Pavel Datsyuk	DET	C	12.78	David Krejci	BOS	C	5.49
Tomas Fleischmann	WAS	C	12.57	Jeff Carter	PHI	C	5.42
Jonathan Toews	CHI	C	12.53	Sami Salo	VAN	D	5.41
Marian Hossa	CHI	RW	12.53	Brent Seabrook	CHI	D	5.38
Ryan Kesler	VAN	C	12.02	Jeff Schultz	WAS	D	5.36
Duncan Keith	CHI	D	11.78	Jordan Leopold	PIT	D	5.33
Johan Franzen	DET	C	11.36	Matt Bradley	WAS	RW	5.30
Patrick Sharp	CHI	C	11.27	Logan Couture	SJ	C	5.26
Dan Boyle	SJ	D	11.14	Kevin Bieksa	VAN	D	5.26
Joe Pavelski	SJ	C	11.11	Tomas Plekanec	MON	C	5.13
Alexei Ponikarovsky	PIT	LW	10.78	Raffi Torres	BUF	LW	5.09
Alex Burrows	VAN	LW	10.73	Chris Stewart	COL	RW	5.07
Chris Kunitz	PIT	LW	10.62	Drew Doughty	LA	D	5.03
Patrik Elias	NJ	LW	10.59	Drew Stafford	BUF	RW	5.01
Travis Zajac	NJ	C	10.46	Martin Erat	NSH	RW	4.98
Ryane Clowe	SJ	LW	10.15	Jason Williams	DET	RW	4.98
Jordan Staal	PIT	C	9.92	Mike Richards	PHI	C	4.97
Tomas Holmstrom	DET	LW	9.66	Matthew Lombardi	PHO	C	4.95
Brendan Morrison	WAS	C	9.65	Patrick Eaves	DET	RW	4.94
Jamie Langenbrunner	NJ	RW	9.64	Steve Bernier	VAN	RW	4.90
Eric Fehr	WAS	RW	9.61	Shane Doan	PHO	RW	4.89
Bill Guerin	PIT	RW	9.58	Patric Hornqvist	NSH	RW	4.80
Mikael Samuelsson	VAN	RW	9.41	Milan Hejduk	COL	RW	4.80
Tim Connolly	BUF	C	9.32	Dustin Brown	LA	RW	4.77
Valtteri Filppula	DET	C	9.29	Boyd Gordon	WAS	C	4.72
Eric Belanger	WAS	C	9.05	Steve Sullivan	NSH	LW	4.68
Derek Roy	BUF	C	9.03	Darren Helm	DET	C	4.67
Alex Goligoski	PIT	D	8.90	Danny Briere	PHI	C	4.64
Nicklas Lidstrom	DET	D	8.72	John Carlson	WAS	D	4.64
Mason Raymond	VAN	LW	8.49	Mike Cammalleri	MON	LW	4.63
Jason Pominville	BUF	RW	7.92	Zdeno Chara	BOS	D	4.59
Brian Rafalski	DET	D	7.86	J.P. Dumont	NSH	RW	4.58
Todd Bertuzzi	DET	RW	7.83	Scott Gomez	MON	C	4.55
Thomas Vanek	BUF	LW	7.82	Andrei Markov	MON	D	4.54
Kris Versteeg	CHI	RW	7.80	Brian Gionta	MON	RW	4.53
Pascal Dupuis	PIT	LW	7.79	Simon Gagne	PHI	LW	4.53
Daniel Cleary	DET	RW	7.76	Jarret Stoll	LA	C	4.50
Devin Setoguchi	SJ	RW	7.51	Mark Recchi	BOS	RW	4.43
Pavol Demitra	VAN	RW	7.51	Chris Pronger	PHI	D	4.41
Jason Chimera	WAS	LW	7.41	Alexander Frolov	LA	LW	4.40
Mathieu Perreault	WAS	C	7.29	Kyle Wellwood	VAN	C	4.38
Alexander Edler	VAN	D	7.26	Lee Stempniak	PHO	RW	4.37
Christian Ehrhoff	VAN	D	7.23	Adam Burish	CHI	RW	4.31
Michael Grabner	VAN	RW	7.23	Mike Fisher	OTT	C	4.30
Troy Brouwer	CHI	RW	7.18	Jannik Hansen	VAN	RW	4.19
Anze Kopitar	LA	C	6.90	Ben Lovejoy	PIT	D	4.15
Manny Malhotra	SJ	C	6.79	Shea Weber	NSH	D	4.15
Dainius Zubrus	NJ	C	6.78	Matt Duchene	COL	C	4.14
Niklas Kronwall	DET	D	6.69	Justin Williams	LA	RW	4.13
David Clarkson	NJ	RW	6.68	John Madden	CHI	C	4.08
Daniel Alfredsson	OTT	RW	6.50	Marco Sturm	BOS	LW	4.06
Andrew Ladd	CHI	LW	6.49	Karl Alzner	WAS	D	4.05
Tyler Kennedy	PIT	C	6.48	Tomas Kopecky	CHI	RW	3.97
Paul Martin	NJ	D	6.40	Rob Niedermayer	NJ	C	3.97
Matt Cooke	PIT	LW	6.30	Kris Draper	DET	C	3.97
Tyler Ennis	BUF	C	6.28	Kent Huskins	SJ	D	3.92
Rob Blake	SJ	D	6.26	Mike Rupp	PIT	C	3.89

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are finally here and 16 teams now have a chance to win it all. All the experts will be making their predictions as to who will win each series in the next few days and I figure I might as well make my own. I’m a little sick of the classic arguments so I like to look at some statistics to prove my points.

First off, Behind the Net Hockey published an excellent article this morning which looks at save percentage in the regular season and in the playoffs. The conclusion was that goaltenders who win the cup weren’t better in the regular season, they simply got hot in the playoffs. It takes a hot goaltender to win it all but his statistics prove that anyone can get hot. With that said, the argument “Washington doesn’t have good enough goaltending to win the cup” is a moot one.

Over the last few weeks I looked at points per game after March 1st and mentioned that over the last three years, they have been excellent at predicting the winners of each series in the playoffs. Here is the updated chart:

	GP	PTS/GP
DET	21	1.62
WSH	20	1.55
PHX	19	1.47
NSH	21	1.38
VAN	21	1.29
MTL	19	1.26
PIT	20	1.25
NJD	21	1.24
SJS	20	1.20
CHI	21	1.19
BUF	22	1.18
BOS	22	1.18
LAK	21	1.10
PHI	22	0.95
OTT	19	0.95
COL	21	0.90

Over the last three years, teams with an advantage of at least 0.25 in pts per game after March 1st are 14-2. As you can see, no team is within 0.25 pts of Washington in the Eastern Conference while Phoenix and Nashville are the only ones within 0.25 of Detroit. One thing you can’t forget however is that the Penguins played many of those games without Evgeni Malkin and Sergei Gonchar. It’s interesting to note that this season the Penguins were 37-15-5 with all three in the lineup and only 10-13-2 when one of them was missing. That’s probably something we could do with most teams but it’s particularly notable for the Penguins.

Anyways, with that said, based on the 0.25 rule, there are four series that are pretty much sure things. The Washington Capitals, New Jersey Devils, Pittsburgh Penguins and San Jose Sharks should all win their series. There aren’t really any surprises right now but this statistic will predict a few upsets in the second round.

Amongst the other series, the Nashville Predators, Vancouver Canucks and Detroit Red Wings are the favourites while the Buffalo Sabres and Boston Bruins have the exact same record since March 1st.

Last week I also wrote an article about the 5 Real Stanley Cup Contenders. In that article, I looked at the last 16 teams that participated in the conference finals to see what they had in common. Here are some interesting statistics from those 16 teams and the list of teams that do no respect those rules:

-All 16 of them had at least 95 points in the regular season.
Teams that do not respect this rule: Boston, Montreal, Ottawa and Philadelphia.

-15 of the 16 had a goal differential of at least +10
Teams that do not respect this rule: Boston, Montreal, Nashville and Ottawa.

-All 16 of them had at least 46 points at home.
Teams that do not respect this rule: Boston and Montreal.

-All 16 of them had at least 41 points on the road.
Teams that do not respect this rule: Ottawa, Philadelphia and Vancouver.

-All 16 of them ranked in the top half of the league in goals per game.
Teams that do not respect this rule: Boston, Montreal, Nashville, New Jersey and Phoenix.

-15 of the 16 had at least 1.10 pts per game after March 1st
Teams that do not respect this rule: Colorado, Ottawa and Philadelphia.

If you put all that together, it leaves only seven teams with a chance to make it to the conference finals:
Eastern Conference: Buffalo Sabres, Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals.
Western Conference: Chicago Blackhawks, Detroit Red Wings, Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks.

The final statistic I want to look at is which teams have benefited from hot goaltending since March 1st. I mentioned earlier that a team needs a hot goaltender in the playoffs but it’s not because he was hot in the season that he will be hot in the playoffs. However, in order to predict who might be hot in the playoffs, I thought it would be a good idea to see who has been hot in the past six weeks:

TEAM	Total	Mar & Apr	Diff
Los Angeles	0.907	0.916	0.009
Phoenix	0.919	0.928	0.009
Nashville	0.908	0.917	0.009
Boston	0.922	0.929	0.007
Montreal	0.917	0.922	0.005
New Jersey	0.916	0.919	0.003
Washington	0.910	0.912	0.002
Philadelphia	0.905	0.902	-0.003
Buffalo	0.922	0.919	-0.003
Detroit	0.914	0.909	-0.005
Ottawa	0.900	0.893	-0.007
Pittsburgh	0.900	0.890	-0.010
Chicago	0.901	0.891	-0.010
Vancouver	0.910	0.895	-0.015
San Jose	0.919	0.899	-0.020
Colorado	0.913	0.892	-0.021

As you can see, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Vancouver, San Jose and Colorado have all had very weak goaltending in the past six weeks which leads me to believe that they will struggle in the playoffs.

With all of that said, here are my predictions for the first round of the playoffs:

Washington Capitals over the Montreal Canadiens – 6 games
New Jersey Devils over the Philadelphia Flyers – 5 games
Boston Bruins over the Buffalo Sabres – 7 games
Pittsburgh Penguins over the Ottawa Senators – 4 games

San Jose Sharks over the Colorado Avalanche – 5 games
Nashville Predators over the Chicago Blackhawks – 6 games
Vancouver Canucks over the Los Angeles Kings – 6 games
Detroit Red Wings over the Phoenix Coyotes – 7 games

My two upsets are the Bruins over the Sabres and the Predators over the Blackhawks. Tuukka Rask has been solid all year long but has been especially good in the past few weeks. I think he could outplay Ryan Miller and take the Bruins to the second round. As for the Predators they have been one of the best teams in the NHL in the past few weeks and have also had great goaltending of late. The Blackhawks have won with poor goaltending all year long but it’s been especially poor in the past six weeks and I think they’ll be knocked out early.

Since making it to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2005-2006, the Edmonton Oilers have missed the playoffs for four straight years and now find themselves at the bottom of the NHL. The good news for the Oilers is they are guaranteed to get either Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin but let’s see if it will be enough to turn things around in the short run.

The good news for the Oilers is that for the past three years, their payroll has been within 2 million of the salary cap. They have plenty of money to spend, they just need to find the right players. Let’s take a look at the 13 players they currently have under contract for next season:

Shawn Horcoff – F – $5,500,000 – He is the most used forward on the Oilers but yet has only 36 points in 75 games. He is a pretty good defensive player but needs to be MUCH better offensively – Overpaid.

Sheldon Souray – D – $5,400,000 – All Montreal Canadiens fans knew this was an awful signing for the Oilers when it happened and now Oilers fans know it too. Even when he scores 20 goals in a season, Souray isn’t worth his salary because of his poor defensive play – Overpaid.

Dustin Penner – F – $4,250,000 – He was one of the few bright spots for the Oilers this season. Penner had a career year despite the team’s record, let’s hope he can keep it up next year – Good value.

Ales Hemsky – F – $4,100,000 – In the past five years, Ales Hemsky has scored over 0.9 points per game. The better news for the Oilers is that he is still only 26 years old and has two years left on his deal – Good value.

Ryan Whitney – D – $4,000,000 – It’s unfortunate that a defenseman who once had a very bright future has played with three different teams in the past two years. However, since joining the Oilers, Whitney has 7 points in 17 games and averages over 25 minutes per game including 3 on the PK – Good value.

Tom Gilbert – D – $4,000,000 – He’s had a very difficult season offensively but was still the most used defenseman by the Oilers and has looked much better of late with Ryan Whitney – Slightly Overpaid

Nikolai Khabibulin – G – $3,750,000 – He has a 0.913 save percentage in 110 games over the past three seasons. He’s not amongst the league’s best anymore but he’s an above average goalie at a decent salary – Fair value.

Patrick O’Sullivan – F – $2,925,000 – Only 33 points in 71 games and worst in the league by far with -37, not a whole lot more to say – Overpaid

Robert Nilsson – F – $2,000,000 – He’s poor defensively and hasn’t developed offensively – Overpaid

Ethan Moreau – F – $2,000,000 – He’s another player who had a poor offensive season. He is a decent defensive player but not worth his salary – Overpaid

Ladislav Smid – D – $1,300,000 – It takes a long time for defensive defensemen to develop but once they do, they are worth every penny. Smid still has a lot of work to do but he was an impressive +5 this year – Fair value

Taylor Chorney – D – $942,000 – He’s an offensive defenseman who isn’t scoring in the AHL and isn’t scoring in the NHL – Fair value.

Zach Stortini – F – $700,000 – He has limited skills but is a very hard worker and will be a solid fourth liner for a long time – Good value.

Here’s what you have when you put all that together:
Great value: 0
Good value: 4
Fair value: 2
Slightly overpaid: 1
Overpaid: 5

Total Cap Hit: $40,867,000

Sure they have a few overpaid players but overall it’s not as bad as you may think. Amongst the restricted free agents, they have Gilbert Brule, Sam Gagner and Andrew Cogliano. All three are still under 23 years old and should have a good future with this team. Once the Oilers sign these players along with Marc-Antoine Pouliot, Ryan Potulny, Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers and either Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin, the Oilers payroll should be somewhere between 51 and 53 million dollars. The Oilers will also bring up Jordan Eberle who could be an impact player in his first year in the NHL and will be a prime candidate for the Calder Trophy. Depending on the salary cap next year, they could have room to sign a veteran defensive defenseman like Willie Mitchell or at a cheaper price, guys like Mark Eaton or Jordan Leopold could be interesting.

As bad as the Oilers were this season, they were also very unlucky. The Edmonton Oilers started the year 10-11-3 until Nikolai Khabibulin and Ales Hemsky were injured. They then went an awful 16-35-5 over the next 56 games losing other important players to injuries over that period of time. With the addition of Hall or Seguin, a full season with Ryan Whitney, a healthy Khabibulin and Hemsky, as well as the development of young players like Brule, Gagner, Eberle, Cogliano and Smid, the Edmonton Oilers will move up the standings. I’d expect them to have somewhere between 80 and 85 points next year but with a little luck and a few pleasant surprises, the Oilers could even be fighting for a playoff spot.

Every year there are a number of teams that are said to be Stanley Cup contenders for whatever reasons, many of them are made up though. I decided to look at some statistics from the past four seasons to see what it takes to be a Stanley Cup contender. Unfortunately, because of the shootout rule that was added in 2005-06, it’s difficult to go back further than that so the sample size is somewhat small.

Here are some numbers for the last 16 teams that made it to a conference final:

-All 16 of them had at least 95 points in the regular season.
Teams that will not respect this rule: Boston, Montreal, NY Rangers and Philadelphia.

-15 of the 16 had a goal differential of at least +10
Teams that probably will not respect this rule: Boston, Montreal, Nashville, NY Rangers and Ottawa.

-All 16 of them had at least 46 points at home.
Teams that will not respect this rule: Boston and NY Rangers.

-All 16 of them had at least 41 points on the road.
Teams that will not respect this rule: Ottawa and Philadelphia.

-All 16 of them ranked in the top half of the league in goals per game.
Teams that probably will not respect this rule: Boston, Calgary, Montreal, New Jersey and Phoenix.

-15 of the 16 had at least 1.10 pts per game after March 1st
Teams that currently do not respect this rule: Boston, Chicago, Colorado, Los Angeles, Ottawa, Philadelphia and San Jose.

Based on those statistics, there are 5 teams that have a chance of making it to the conference finals.
Eastern Conference: Buffalo Sabres, Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals.
Western Conference: Detroit Red Wings and Vancouver Canucks

The Chicago Blackhawks and the San Jose Sharks could join this group if they get hot in the final few games, but, at this point, these five teams are the only ones with a chance of making it to the conference finals.

You will probably hear a lot of experts mention over the next few weeks that teams need a good goaltender to go far in the playoffs but remember that Chris Osgood had an 0.887 save percentage in the regular season last year and that Dwayne Roloson had an 0.905 save percentage when he took the Oilers to the Stanley Cup finals. Yes it takes good performances from your goaltender to go far in the playoffs but any of them can get hot in the playoffs.

On a final note we are currently running a promotion in our store where all RBK Platinum Practice Jerseys are on sale for $24.99. These jerseys normally retail for over $40. For group orders, the price can drop even lower.

Last night was a big one for the Montreal Canadiens, who defeated the Philadelphia Flyers, and for the Calgary Flames ,who defeated the Colorado Avalanche. Today, there are eleven games with four of the five teams fighting for a playoff spot in the East in action.

Atlanta Thrashers vs Pittsburgh Penguins
This is a huge game for both teams as the Penguins are trying to move into the second spot in the East while the Thrashers are trying to tie the Bruins and the Flyers with 82 points. It’s a must win for the Thrashers who cannot afford to lose this game and remain two points back with only three games left. Unfortunately for the Thrashers, Evgeni Malkin and Sergei Gonchar are expected to play today and should help the Penguins come away with the win.

Boston Bruins vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Believe it or not, the Leafs are 9-3-1 in their last 13 games (although 6 of those wins came in overtime or shootout). It won’t be an easy game for the Bruins but it’s an important one. A win would solidify their 7th place while a loss combined with a Rangers win would move them down to 9th. The Leafs are a pretty tough team to beat at home this season and I expect them to come away with another win but it’ll be a close one.

Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens looked awful in the third period against the Hurricanes and looked even worst in the third period last night against the Flyers but still managed to come away with the win, thanks to Jaroslav Halak. 12 goals in their last 7 games isn’t nearly enough and they’ll need to be better if they want to score even one goal against Ryan Miller. The Sabres looked like the easier match-up amongst the top four teams in the East but after winning seven of their last nine, they could hold on to the number two seed and be a very dangerous team in the playoffs.

New York Rangers vs Florida Panthers
The Rangers have crawled back into the playoff race with nine points out of ten in their last five games (including the last four on the road) and there’s no reason why they can’t come away with two more tonight. This is a must win for the Rangers but wouldn’t be out of it even with a loss as they have back to back games against the Flyers to end the season.

Nashville Predators vs Detroit Red Wings
Although this game is for the fifth spot in the Western Conference, it’s not such an important one because the Coyotes and Canucks are both very tough opponents. It will be a very exciting game however between the two hottest teams in the NHL. The Wings will look to extend their winning streak to eight games but the Predators have a chance to gain some respect with a win.

I wrote an article a few weeks ago that showed how important it is to play well in the final few weeks of the regular season. My statistics showed that in the past three years, teams with higher points per game after March 1st won more often than the higher seed. The even more interesting statistic is that teams that have 0.25 more points per game after March 1st than their opponent are 16-2.

Here is how the teams in the playoffs or in the playoff hunt currently rank:

	GP	PTS/GP
DET	15	1.67
PHX	14	1.50
WSH	14	1.43
MTL	13	1.38
PIT	14	1.36
NSH	17	1.35
VAN	15	1.33
BUF	15	1.27
CGY	14	1.14
NJD	15	1.13
SJS	14	1.07
NYR	14	1.07
BOS	16	1.06
ATL	17	1.06
PHI	16	0.94
LAK	15	0.93
COL	14	0.93
OTT	14	0.93
CHI	14	0.86

As you can see, the Detroit Red Wings are on an excellent streak with 25 points in only 15 games since the Olympic break. This team is looking a lot like the Pittsburgh Penguins last year. They were fighting for a playoff spot in early March but had a 14-2-3 record in their final 19 games, earned the fourth seed and won the Stanley Cup.

At the bottom of the list you have the Chicago Blackhawks who have won only five of their last 14 games. The loss of Brian Campbell was a big one and I wouldn’t be surprised if they got eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.

Using the 0.25 points rule, which I explained earlier, here are some interesting things to consider for each conference.

Western Conference:
-The only team that could stop the Detroit Red Wings are the Phoenix Coyotes.
-The Phoenix Coyoyes should beat the Calgary Flames, San Jose Sharks, Los Angeles Kings, Colorado Avalanche and Chicago Blackhawks if they faced them.
-The Detroit Red Wings, Phoenix Coyotes, Vancouver Canucks and Nashville Predators are the best teams in the Western Conference but, if things stay the same, they will all face each other in the first round.
-The Chicago Blackhawks would lose to any team except the Colorado Avalanche and the Los Angeles Kings in the first round.

Eastern Conference:
-The Washington Capitals are still the best team in the Eastern Conference but the Pittsburgh Penguins, Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres are within 0.25 points per game.
-The Ottawa Senators and Philadelphia Flyers would be pretty much sure things to lose in the first round if they played any of the four teams I named above.
-The Montreal Canadiens have the best chance of creating an upset. They are second in points per game and are currently the seventh seed in the East.

A lot of things could change in the next 12 days but as you can see, I believe there will be quite a few upsets in the playoffs this season. In two weeks, I’ll of course post my predictions for each series, which will in part be based on this rule.

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The Pittsburgh Penguins signed Kristopher Letang to a four-year deal worth 14 million dollars today. Letang has been somewhat disappointing this season with only 3 goals and 24 assists in 67 games. He is their second most used defenseman with 21:30 of time on ice per game but he is last in shorthanded time on ice per game with only 1:13. 3.5 million per year seems like an awful lot for an offensive defenseman who isn’t producing much offensively.

The Penguins will once again be contenders this season, and, in my opinion, are the team to beat in the Eastern Conference but is this their last real chance at a Stanley Cup? At the end of the season, Bill Guerin, Ruslan Fedotenko, Matt Cooke, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Sergei Gonchar, Mark Eaton, Jay McKee and Jordan Leopold will all be unrestricted free agents. The other 14 players currently on the roster will cost 44.5 million against the salary cap next season.

Over the past two years, the Penguins are 37-33-6 without Sergei Gonchar in the lineup. That record would give them 80 points in 76 games and would currently put them in eight place in the Eastern Conference. The Penguins certainly realize how important Gonchar is to their team so, assuming they sign him to a deal that earns him 5 million dollars a year (same as right now), they will have 15 players signed for 49.5 million dollars. If they fill their roster with players making $500,000, their payroll would be at 53.5 million dollars for the 2010-11 season. We still don’t know what the salary cap will be for next year but it would be surprising if it were above that.

The Penguins would basically be replacing Guerin, Fedotenko, Cooke, Ponikarovsky, Eaton, McKee and Leopold with minor league players. That means their fourth line and third pair of defensemen will be composed of minor league players and they will have very little scoring depth after the trio of Crosby, Malkin and Staal. The only way that they can have more depth in their lineup is to let Sergei Gonchar go but as we’ve seen, they can’t afford to do that.

The situation for the Pittsburgh Penguins isn’t nearly as bad as it was for the Tampa Bay Lightning a few years ago but they did make some of the same mistakes. They signed their star players to a lot of money (which is okay of course) but what makes Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin so good is that they can make other players better. They don’t need a guy like Chris Kunitz at 3.75 million dollars to be productive.

Marc-Andre Fleury is a good young goaltender but he’s not worth 5 million dollars a year and players like Staal, Kunitz and Orpik are slightly overpaid in my opinion. The good news for the Penguins is that the five players that are taking up almost 30 million of their cap room (Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Letang and Fleury) will continue to improve over the next three or four years.

In conclusion, I believe that the Penguins could be in trouble next season and might even have to fight for a playoff spot but they should be Stanley Cup contenders again in two or three years.

Presidents’ Trophy:
The Washington Capitals currently hold a five-point lead over the San Jose Sharks with one game in hand. It’s almost a sure thing that they’ll hold on to this lead and win their first ever Presidents’ Trophy. Prediction: Washington Capitals

Art Ross Trophy:
Henrik Sedin currently leads by one point over Alexander Ovechkin, both of whom still have seven games left to play. Although Ovechkin has played ten fewer games than Sedin, he only has 11 points in his 11 games since the Olympics break, while Henrik Sedin has 21 points in 14 games. Prediction: Henrik Sedin – Vancouver Canucks

Maurice ‘Rocket’ Richard Trophy:
The race for the Rocket Richard Trophy has turned into a three-way race between three former number one overall picks. Sidney Crosby currently leads with 47 goals but Alexander Ovechkin and Steven Stamkos are right behind him with 46 and 45 goals respectively. Stamkos and Ovechkin do have a small edge over Crosby with one extra game left to play. All three have been somewhat cold of late as Crosby and Stamkos only have three goals in their last nine games while Ovechkin has four. As much as I’d love for Steven Stamkos to win this one, I expect Alexander Ovechkin will come away with his third straight Rocket Richard Trophy. Prediction: Alexander Ovechkin – Washington Capitals

William M. Jennings Trophy:
The New Jersey Devils and Boston Bruins currently lead with 2.39 goals against per game and the Phoenix Coyotes are right behind at 2.40. The Phoenix Coyotes have allowed only 28 goals in their 13 games since the Olympic break and should finish the season strong. Prediction: Ilya Bryzgalov – Phoenix Coyotes

Lady Byng Memorial Trophy:
Pavel Datsyuk has won the last four Lady Byng Memorial Trophies but he has somewhat struggled this season and I expect a new winner this year. The nominees will likely be Martin St. Louis, Brad Richards and Anze Kopitar, all of whom have at least 75 points and less than 15 PIM. Prediction: Martin St. Louis – Tampa Bay Lightning

Jack Adams Award:
The Jack Adams Award was only awarded to the coach that won the Presidents’ Trophy once in the last 20 years. This award is usually given to the coach that had the most surprising team and this season there is no doubt that it is the Phoenix Coyotes. I will be shocked if Dave Tippett doesn’t win the award this season. Prediction: Dave Tippett – Phoenix Coyotes

Frank J. Selke Trophy:
This trophy used to be awarded to the best defensive forward but for some reason, since the lockout, the players that won it all had at least 70 points. In my opinion, Jay McClement who has 3:44 of shorthanded ice time per game (23 seconds more than any other forward) on the league’s top penalty kill should be the winner hands down, but he probably won’t because he only has 28 points and plays in St. Louis. This year’s trophy will likely go to Ryan Kesler who was nominated last year but has had a much better offensive season this year while still ranking 21st in shorthanded ice time per game. Prediction: Ryan Kesler – Vancouver Canucks

Calder Memorial Trophy:
The Calder Memorial Trophy will be one of the toughest awards to give out this year. Matt Duchesne leads the forwards with 52 points in 75 games, Tyler Myers has been stellar on defense with 43 points in 74 games and almost 24 minutes of ice time per game, and Jimmy Howard has had an incredible season with a 0.926 save percentage, a 2.24 GAA and a 32-15-9 record. In my opinion, it’ll come down to a race between Myers and Howard. Myers is the 25th best defenseman in ice time and 12th best in points which probably makes him one of the 20 defensemen this season in the NHL. Howard is currently third in save percentage amongst goalies who have played at least 40 games, second in goals against average and tenth in wins. As good as Myers has been this year, I think the edge will go to Jimmy Howard, especially if he starts the last seven games of the year for the Red Wings. Prediction: Jimmy Howard – Detroit Red Wings

James Norris Memorial Trophy:
The last ten Norris Trophy winners all had at least 50 points and at least 25:30 of ice time per game. It’s also interesting to note that all their teams made the playoffs and the last nine winners were on a team with at least 100 points. This season, eight players have at least 25:30 of ice time per game but only three of them will likely finish the year with at least 50 points and will likely make the playoffs. The three candidates are: Duncan Keith, Dan Boyle and Chris Pronger. Duncan Keith is the best of the three in points and time on ice per game, and his team currently has 99 points. Prediction: Duncan Keith – Chicago Blackhawks

Vezina Trophy:
This trophy is usually awarded to a goaltender who ranks somewhere near the top in wins, goals against average and save percentage. Last year, Tim Thomas won the award despite starting only 54 games but his save percentage was 0.010 better than any goalie who had started 60 or more games. This year, there are eight goalies with a save percentage above 0.920. Six of them should end up with at least 60 starts but Tomas Vokoun and Miikka Kiprusoff have won 50% or less of their starts. The four candidates are therefore: Ryan Miller, Jimmy Howard, Evgeni Nabokov and Ilya Bryzgalov. All four have had an excellent season but Ryan Miller is the best in save percentage and goals against average. Ryan Miller also led the Unites States to a silver medal in the Olympics which shouldn’t count in the vote, but it will. Prediction: Ryan Miller – Buffalo Sabres

Hart Memorial Trophy:
Although this trophy is supposed to be awarded to the league’s most valuable player, it is usually awarded to the best player. 11 of the last 13 winner of the Hart Memorial Trophy also won either the Art Ross, Rocket Richard or Vezina Trophy. This would mean that the candidates this year are amongst: Henrik Sedin, Alexander Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos and Ryan Miller. Alexander Ovechkin should win this trophy easily even though the league’s most valuable player is probably Ryan Miller. Prediction: Alexander Ovechkin – Washington Capitals

We’ll find out in a couple of months how many I got right. I’d also like to mention that you have less than three days left to buy your NHL Playoff Combo from our online store. With the purchase of an RBK Premier Jersey, you also get the 2nd Season Cap and the Gameday 3 in 1 Combo at 50% off.