Category: Uncategorised

The system used by the NFL to break a tie after 60 minutes has long been criticized. There is no perfect system but one that gives a big advantage to the team that wins a coin toss is a little ridiculous.

In the past 15 years, the team that won the coin toss at the beginning of overtime won the game 60% of the time. With the new rule, if the team that wins the coin toss kicks a field goal on its first possession, the opposing team will then get their turn on offense. They will not get that possession if the first score in overtime is a touchdown and they will have only one chance to tie the game again or win it. Once again, this is not a perfect system but is there really a better one?

The NCAA overtime system has been discussed and although it is exciting, I don’t like it for the NFL. The one thing I strongly believe is that overtime should not be different from regulation time. In the NCAA, each team begins at the 25-yard line and gets a chance one after the other to score until there is a winner. What I don’t like about those rules is that you are taking only a part of the game to decide the winner. A lot of things change when an offense starts from the 25-yard line: strategy changes, playbook is smaller, more importance is given to kickers and so on. This system would give an advantage to certain teams.

A few other proposals are: first team to score four points, play the entire overtime or each team is guaranteed one offensive possession. One thing the NFL doesn’t want to do is extend games because games that last four hours create a number of problems for television, stadiums and the city. Personally my favourite proposal was the one that guaranteed each team an offensive possession but after further thought, I think I like the new system better.

The new system will have the same effect as the guaranteed possession system except that if a team scores a touchdown on their first possession, they win the game. If a defense allows a team to go the length of the field for a touchdown, does their offense really deserve an offensive possession? It only takes about 30 to 40 yards to get in field goal position and it’s unfair to lose a game because of that but a touchdown takes about 70 to 80 yards, you don’t deserve another chance.

With that said, I think this is a great decision by the NFL but I don’t understand why this rule applies only for the playoffs. It doesn’t make much sense to have different rules for the regular season and for the playoffs. If 28 out of 32 teams believe it’s a good rule, then use it for the regular season as well. The regular season is 16 games and every game matters, so if the current system is unfair for the playoffs, it also is for the regular season. This issue will be discussed in May so let’s hope the NFL gets it right again and makes the change for the regular season as well.

I read an article earlier today which took a look at the Best and Worst Faceoff Takers since 1997. The article explained that a guy like Scott Nichol who has won 59.3% of his faceoffs since 1997 was underrated because of that statistic. I have to say I had my doubts so I decided to look into it.

In order to calculate the value of winning faceoffs, I looked at team statistics from the past 11 seasons. The first thing I did was to group all the teams in the past 11 years that had a faceoff percentage above 51.0% in a season and compare them with the teams that had a faceoff percentage below 49.0%. Here is how they compare:

FO %	Pts	GF/G	GA/G	Goal Diff.
52.32	92.79	2.80	2.64	0.154
47.71	81.38	2.65	2.83	-0.178

To my surprise, a difference of 4.6% in team faceoff percentage gives on average 11.4 more points in the standings. That is a gigantic impact for a statistic that is independent of everything else that happens on the ice. It’s a one on one match-up between two players, independent of a player’s teammates, linemates, the score of the game and so on. Those are some nice statistics but how can a team use that to their advantage?

Based on those same statistics, a difference of 4.6% in team faceoff percentage leads to a difference of 0.331 in goals for and goals against per game. A difference of 1% will therefore lead to a difference of 0.072 goals per game or 5.9 goals in a season.

Take Scott Nichol who has won 60.8% of the 778 faceoffs he has taken so far in 2009-2010. Then take a look at a guy like Tim Connolly who has won only 46.8% of the 737 faceoffs he has taken this year. If Scott Nichol had taken Connolly’s 737 faceoffs with the Sabres this year instead of Connolly, their team faceoff percentage would have increased by a little over 2.5%. That is equal to about 6.2 points in the standings or an additional 15 goals in goals for and against differential.

The impact of a faceoff guy is even more intriguing from a statistical perspective because these statistics are independent from everything else. A guy can have 40 goals because of the players he’s playing with, a guy can’t win 60% of his faceoffs because of the players he’s playing with. On top of that, a guy with 40 goals will be very expensive on the free agent market but a 60% faceoff percentage will generally not reflect itself on a player’s salary.

Faceoff percentage is one of the most underrated statistics in the NHL and it seems the San Jose Sharks have figured this out. The Sharks have both Scott Nichol and Joe Pavelski who are the two leaders in the NHL in faceoff percentage and this is one of the reasons why they are having such a great season.

I know it’s easy to criticize some UFA signings more than eight months later but nonetheless it’s fun to do. There were some great and not so great signings last off-season, let’s take a look:

Best:
Marian Gaborik – New York Rangers – 37.5 million for 5 years – You can criticize Glen Sather all you want for the awful work he’s done with the Rangers in the past decade but this was one of his best moves, for now… 7.5 million seemed like a lot for a player who could never stay healthy but this year, Gaborik has recorded 76 points in 66 games including 37 goals. Everyone knew he was very talented but he’s probably better than many thought and he’s shown that he can stay healthy.

Craig Anderson – Colorado Avalanche – 3.6 million for 2 years – The main reason why the Colorado Avalanche will make the playoffs this year costs only 1.8 million in cap room. Anderson has recorded 35 wins in 62 games including 7 shutouts and a 0.922 save percentage. Believe it or not, the Avalanche are allowing 3.2 more shots per game than last year but are giving up 0.47 fewer goal per game. Funny thing is that this is Anderson’s worst season in terms of save percentage since 2005-2006.

Nik Antropov – Atlanta Thrashers – 16 million for 4 years – When the Thrashers signed Antropov, the general consensus was: poor Thrashers, they have to overpay players to get them to come to Atlanta. Well, they might have paid more than his market value at the time but it turned out pretty good for them. Antropov has 63 points in 68 games so far this year and is the 30th highest scorer in the NHL. 4 million a year for a top 30 scorer is an excellent deal and it’s even better when you consider Antropov has 21 points in 17 games since the Ilya Kovalchuk trade to New Jersey.

Maxim Afinogenov – Atlanta Thrashers – 0.8 million for 1 year – We all knew that Afinogenov was a very talented player but he’d struggled in Buffalo in the past two years and the Thrashers decided to give him a chance. It worked out well for both sides as the Thrashers are currently fighting for a playoff spot and Afinogenov should get a pretty nice increase in salary this off-season.

Vaclav Prospal – New York Rangers – 1.1 million for 1 year – The Rangers did something similar to the Thrashers by giving Vaclav Prospal a chance. Prospal is on pace for 67 points this year and is a big reason why the Rangers are still in playoff contention. Glen Sather had a pretty nice off-season in 2009, it’s unfortunate that he blew it in 2007 and 2008 with Wade Redden and Chris Drury, 14 million per year until 2013-2014 for two very struggling players.

Mikael Samuelsson – Vancouver Canucks – 7.5 million for 3 years – Samuelsson had been a solid player for the Red Wings in the past four years totaling 149 points in 278 games with about 15 minutes of ice time per game. This year he is getting 17 minutes per game including three on the PP and he has scored 30 goals in 70 games. He’s had problems with injuries in the past but he’s been healthy for the past two years and should continue to be a very valuable player for the Canucks.

Worst:
Alexei Kovalev – Ottawa Senators – 10 million for 2 years – Kovalev has had an up and down year just like he has for his entire career and he is currently on a big down. 5 million a year for a guy with only 17 goals and 30 assists in 69 games is a lot. The good news for the Senators is that Kovalev could turn it around at any point and could have a great year in 2010-11 but, they’re stuck with him for now.

Martin Havlat – Minnesota Wild – 30 million for 6 years – In the off-season, this seemed like a very long contract and an expensive one for a player who had over 70 points only once in eight NHL seasons. Havlat has only 49 points in 66 games this year including only 16 goals. It is especially expensive for a player who doesn’t bring much to the team other than his scoring.

Mike Komisarek – Toronto Maple Leafs – 22.5 million for 5 years – In my opinion, Mike Komisarek is a “defensive defenseman” who isn’t particularly good defensively. He doesn’t contribute offensively and he will often get out of position defensively in order to make the big hit. He might have 85 hits and 62 blocked shots in only 34 games but he is a -9, has 14 minor penalties and only 4 assists.

Samuel Pahlsson – Columbus Blue Jackets – 7.95 million for 3 years – I know that Pahlsson was signed for his defensive play but 2.65 million a year is an awful lot for a player with 2 goals and 9 assists in 69 games. He is the leading penalty killer for the Blue Jackets but they are 13th in the NHL, same as last year, and Pahlsson is a -11 at even strength this year. This is way too much money for a defensive player who doesn’t seem to have that much impact on his new team.

The Vancouver Canucks and Ryan Kesler have agreed to a 6-year deal worth 30 million dollars. The former first round pick has been on a roll this season with 66 points in 71 games but is he really worth 5 million a year?

At this point in the season, Kesler is the 22nd highest scorer in the NHL after finishing 67th last year. More importantly, Kesler is the most used forward on the Canucks with 19:49 of ice time per game including 2:40 on the penalty kill. In each of the past four seasons, Kesler has been his team’s top penalty killer.

Ryan Kesler would have been a restricted free agent at the end of the season but he was only one-year away from unrestricted free agency. Because of that it is pretty fair to compare Kesler with other NHL players, something we couldn’t do if he was 3 or 4 years away from his UFA status. A top 25 scorer (like Kesler is this year) who is his team’s top penalty killing forward should in theory get paid amongst the top 15-20 forwards. This would mean that Kesler is worth about 6.5 million a year.

The one thing that drops Kesler’s value however is that the 2009-10 season is his first very good offensive season as he had only recorded 96 points in the two previous years. If he continues to play like he is this year, Ryan Kesler is worth much more than 5 million per year but the Canucks are probably expecting him to score 60 points a year and play well defensively. Overall, I think this is a very fair deal.

This deal will certainly be used as a point of comparison in negotiations between Tomas Plekanec an the Montreal Canadiens. So far this season, the two players have almost identical statistics: 21 goals and 45 assists for Kesler while Plekanec has 21 goals and 44 assists. Over the past three seasons, the Montreal Canadiens forward has 173 points including 70 goals while the 26-year old American has 142 points including 68 goals. The two players are therefore very similar offensively with possibly a small edge going to Plekanec. This year, Plekanec is the top penalty killing forward on the Canadiens but he had not been in the past and is not as solid defensively as Kesler. The 27-year old Czech is however set to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year and probably has more negotiating power than Kesler.

If you put all that together, I’d expect Plekanec to sign a very similar deal to Kesler’s although it may be a little shorter. My prediction would be 25 million for the next five years.

I thought it would be a good idea to talk about the teams that are currently on a hot streak in the NHL, but, before doing so, I thought I’d find some stats to see if there is a correlation between: the record in the final few weeks of the regular season and playoff performance.

I decided to look at statistics from the past three years and look at how teams have done after March 1st and in the playoffs. Last season, despite being the fourth seed, the Pittsburgh Penguins led the league with 1.63 Pts per GP after March 1st and went on to win the Stanley Cup. Here is a chart that shows why the Pts per GP after March 1st is an interesting stat to keep your eye on:

	W	L	Win %
Higher Seed	28	17	62.2%
Higher PTS /GP	30	14	68.2%
Higher PTS /GP by 0.25	14	2	87.5%

As you can see, Pts per GP after March 1st is a better indicator than the playoff seed. The even more impressive number is that if a team has 0.25 Pts per GP more than the team they are facing, they win 87.5% of the time. You might argue that many of those are obvious wins, but, over the past three years, only 6 of those 14 wins were when a 1 or 2 seed was facing a 7 or 8 seed.

With that said, let’s take a look at the current Pts per GP Standings since March 1st:

	GP	PTS/GP
MTL	8	1.75
PHX	7	1.71
WSH	8	1.63
PIT	7	1.57
DET	8	1.50
VAN	9	1.44
NSH	9	1.33
COL	8	1.25
MIN	8	1.25
TOR	9	1.22
CGY	7	1.14
FLA	7	1.14
NJD	7	1.14
STL	7	1.14
CAR	8	1.13
NYI	8	1.13
PHI	9	1.11
BOS	9	1.00
CBJ	7	1.00
CHI	7	1.00
LAK	7	1.00
NYR	8	1.00
SJS	7	1.00
BUF	8	0.88
ATL	9	0.78
DAL	8	0.63
TBL	8	0.63
EDM	9	0.56
ANA	6	0.50
OTT	7	0.43

There is still a lot of hockey to be played but there are a couple of teams on there to keep your eye on:

1. Montreal Canadiens: The Canadiens had an up and down year but they have been on fire in the past few weeks and now seem to be on their way to the playoffs. Their 7-1-0 record since the Olympic break is even more impressive considering they are playing without their leading goal scorer Mike Cammalleri. After last night’s win, the Habs now have a 7 points lead on the Rangers and the ninth spot in the East and are only 1 point back of the fifth seed which seemed unreachable a week ago.

2. Phoenix Coyotes: Despite all the talk of moving the team, the Phoenix Coyotes are having their best season in franchise history. The Coyotes have won 6 straight games since acquiring Wojtek Wolski and Derek Morris at the trade deadline and have put themselves in very good position to have home-ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The season-ending injury to Scottie Upshall has not hurt them yet but he would have been a useful player in the playoffs.

3. Washington Capitals: The Capitals have been solid all-season long and should continue to be dominant as long as they remain healthy. You can criticize their goaltending all you want but they score so many goals that they don’t need their goalie to steal a game in the playoffs in order to win a series. They will be a very tough team to beat.

4. Pittsburgh Penguins: The defending Stanley Cup Champions are another team that has been hot of late and could go on a run like they did last year. They have an impressive 5-1-1 record since the Olympic break and in my opinion will be the team to beat in the playoffs, if they stay healthy. Say all you want about the Capitals but the Penguins are the defending champions and are 34-14-5 with Sergei Gonchar in the lineup. Remember that last year he missed more than four months and the Penguins were basically unbeatable once he came back in the middle of February.

5. Detroit Red Wings: The 2009 Stanley Cup Finalists have had a very difficult season but have won 6 of their last 8 games and have somewhat solidified the 8th spot in the West. With 13 games left in the season, I expect the Wings to move up a couple of spot and will create a very tough match-up for the Sharks, Blackhawks or Canucks in the first round of the playoffs.

6. Vancouver Canucks: Despite playing 14 straight games on the road because of the Olympics, the Vancouver Canucks have managed to hold on to their lead in the Northwest division. The Canucks were in a similar position last year but disappointed many by losing in the second round of the playoffs. With Roberto Luongo in net, this team could be a wild card pick to make it all the way.

I’ll post these standings again in a week or two to see how things have changed and to see if these six teams manage to continue their streak.

For years the NHL and media have discussed banning hits to the head but the time might finally have come. Bill Daly stated this morning that the rule could be put in place before the end of the regular season or in time for the playoffs, if approved. A DVD is currently being prepared for the 30 NHL teams in order to show them what would be legal and what wouldn’t be.

I’ve criticized the NHL quite a bit and still believe it’s a very poorly managed league but, for once, I think the NHL would be taking an excellent decision. It’s very unusual to change a rule in the middle of an NHL season but right now the NHL doesn’t have a choice. Imagine, with five games left to play in the season, that Sidney Crosby gets hit at center ice with a shoulder to the head and is out for the entire playoffs. Not only would the hit ruin the Penguins chances of back to back cups and hurt TV ratings even more but the player who hit him couldn’t even be suspended… If something like that were to happen, as devastating as the hit could be, Colin Campbell wouldn’t be able to justify suspending a player for a hit to the head because Mike Richards and Matt Cooke weren’t suspended.

Right now, players know they can hit each other with shoulders to the head and without being suspended. You can bet that within the next few weeks, if the occasion presents itself, some players will take it. This is a great decision by the NHL to try and accelerate the process. Now let’s hope the rest of the league comes through and that this rule is approved soon in order to avoid another public embarrassment for the NHL.

After weeks of speculation, Tiger Woods has finally announced that he will play in the 2010 Masters and that it will be his first tournament since November 15. When the Masters begins on April 8, it will have been almost five months since Woods has participated in a professional golf tournament.

I won’t hide it, I’m a huge Tiger fan and have been since he won the 1997 Masters. He’s the main reason why I was interested in golf in the first place and I know I’m not the only one. I don’t want to defend his actions, everyone knows what happened and you’ve made your own judgment.

The one thing that no one can argue with, however, is what Tiger Woods has done for the game of golf. After the 2008 U.S. Open, Woods had knee surgery and did not play for the rest of the season. The TV Ratings for the final major tournament of the year, the 2008 PGA Championship, were down 55% from the year before when Tiger Woods won. The ratings were down about 40% in other tournaments (except the British Open which was only 11%) that Woods missed in the 2008 season.

Every major tournament, the media always tried to hype the battle between Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. The media loves match-ups with two stars facing each other but let’s be honest, everyone is well-behind Tiger. Since 2005, he has participated in 18 major tournaments; he has placed in the top ten in 15 of them, in the top five in 13 of them and has won 6 of them. Over the same period of time, Mickelson has participated in 19 major tournaments and has only 8 top ten’s, 6 top five’s and 2 wins. Basically Tiger’s chances of winning a major are better than Mickelson’s chances of finishing in the top five.

Despite all the time off, Tiger Woods is still the favourite to win the Masters and how can you really argue with that? Sure he hasn’t played in a professional tournament since November but it’s not like he hasn’t played golf at all. Sure the media attention will be all on him but isn’t it always on him? The pressure will be extremely high on Tiger as he knows that the best way for people to forget about the events of the past few months is to win a golf tournament.

The NHL and Colin Campbell have been heavily criticized over the past week for not suspending Matt Cooke for his hit on Marc Savard. It is funny how once again things are lining up perfectly for the NHL to look foolish. Take a look at these two hits and decide for yourself which one is worse:

The two hits happened pretty much at the same spot on the ice and the same distance from the boards. The only difference is that it looks like Ovechkin’s push is harder than Lapierre’s. Maxim Lapierre was suspended four games for this hit on Scott Nichol on March 4th. Many agreed that it was excessive especially considering Matt Cooke was not suspended for a hit that was much more dangerous. Maxim Lapierre was a first-time offender and had never been suspended before that hit while Ovechkin was suspended for two games earlier this year. Scott Nichol missed one game due to the injury while Brian Campbell will likely be out for the rest of the year. Those are two of the criteria that the NHL supposedly considers when giving out suspensions, and in both cases, Ovechkin is in a worse situation.

With all that said, the NHL has two choices: look ridiculous or suspend its best player for at least four games. We’ll find out in a few days what they decide to do.

If you could take any goalie in the NHL for a playoff run, you would probably choose Martin Brodeur or Roberto Luongo or possibly Ryan Miller because of his excellent season. Yesterday I wrote an article about Ilya Kovalchuk’s value and did some calculations to see who were the top scorers in the past three years in the NHL. I thought those statistics were an excellent indicator of who the best forwards are right now in the NHL. I figured it would be interesting to do the same thing for goalies and see who the best goalies in the NHL have been in the past three years.

I decided to take all goalies who have played over 5,000 minutes in the past three years and sorted them my save percentage:
1 – Craig Anderson – 0.925 – 2.49 – 6103 mins
2 – Tomas Vokoun – 0.924 – 2.52 – 10691 mins
3 – Tim Thomas – 0.924 – 2.33 – 8872 mins
4 – Jonas Hiller – 0.919 – 2.49 – 6627 mins
5 – Ryan Miller – 0.918 – 2.46 – 11300 mins
6 – Roberto Luongo – 0.918 – 2.39 – 10663 mins
7 – Ty Conklin – 0.917 – 2.54 – 5230 mins
8 – Niklas Backstrom – 0.917 – 2.41 – 10437 mins
9 – Martin Brodeur – 0.917 – 2.28 – 10115 mins
10 – Henrik Lundqvist – 0.916 – 2.37 – 11850 mins

Surprise, surprise! Craig Anderson? Tomas Vokoun? Tim Thomas? Those three goalies have saved 0.5% more shots than any other goalie in the NHL over the past three years. These stats are extremely intriguing but of course we have to take a closer look as we do with all statistics.

I decided to look at the shots for and against for each team at home and on the road. The following chart shows the top five and bottom five for total shots (for + against) at home divided by total shots on the road over the last three years:
1 – Colorado – 1.07
2 – Nashville – 1.05
3 – Anaheim – 1.05
4 – Tampa Bay – 1.05
5 – Florida – 1.04
26 – Vancouver – 0.96
27 – Pittsburgh – 0.96
28 – Minnesota – 0.94
29 – New Jersey – 0.93
30 – St. Louis – 0.92

A higher number means that the total number of shots at home is higher than on the road. There are two possible reasons for this: the home statistician counts more shots than the average statistician or the team plays a more open game at home. In order to rule out the second theory, I compared those numbers with total games at home and on the road and there was no correlation between the two. It could be true for a small number of teams but I’ll assume it’s not the case.

I decided to recalculate the save percentages in the past three seasons with adjustments based on the numbers above. Here are the new adjusted rankings:
1 – Tim Thomas – 0.924
2 – Craig Anderson – 0.923
3 – Tomas Vokoun – 0.923
4 – Martin Brodeur – 0.920
5 – Niklas Backstrom – 0.920
6 – Roberto Luongo – 0.919
7 – Ty Conklin – 0.918
8 – Jonas Hiller – 0.917
9 – Ryan Miller – 0.917
10 – Henrik Lundqvist – 0.915

Although these adjustments moved Martin Brodeur up the list, he is still behind the top three of Tim Thomas, Craig Anderson and Tomas Vokoun. One could argue that Tim Thomas and Craig Anderson haven’t been solid for a long enough period of time to be considered amongst the best but what about Tomas Vokoun? Let’s compare Vokoun’s numbers over the past five years with Luongo’s and Brodeur’s:
Tomas Vokoun – 289 GP – 26 SO – 2.53 GAA – 142 Wins – 0.923 Save%
Martin Brodeur – 322 GP – 33 SO – 2.32 GAA – 191 Wins – 0.917 Save%
Roberto Luongo – 335 GP – 28 SO – 2.49 GAA – 185 Wins – 0.918 Save%

As you can see, Vokoun has played nearly as many games as the other two and has a better save percentage. The only advantage that Brodeur and Luongo have is that they are on much better teams, and hence, have more wins and a lower goals against average.

Sure Vokoun has only made the playoffs twice in his career and has never made it past the first round but Luongo hasn’t had much more success. Roberto Luongo now has an Olympic gold medal but Vokoun was dominant in the Vancouver Olympics. Unfortunately for him, the Czechs didn’t score enough goals and he didn’t receive the credit he deserved for his performances.

It is surprising that no NHL team made a move for Vokoun at the deadline because, in my opinion, it is obvious that Vokoun should be in the discussion for the best goalie in the NHL. If a GM from a contending team has the guts to trade for him and his 5.7M cap hit in the off-season, it could really pay off.

Ilya Kovalchuk has had a bit of a quiet start with the New Jersey Devils but he somewhat picked it up last night scoring a goal and two assists in a 3-1 victory against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Kovalchuk now has 11 points in 11 games with the Devils and 69 points in 60 games this season. Atlanta Thrashers GM Don Waddell said that Kovalchuk turned down a 12-year contract worth 101 million dollars but is he worth that much?

Since coming back from the lockout, Kovalchuk has scored at least 40 goals in every season (he probably will again this year) and had missed only ten games in the past four seasons. I decided to look at the points per game scored in the past three seasons (2007-08 to 2009-10) to see where Kovalchuk ranks:
1 – Alex Ovechkin – 1.44
2 – Sidney Crosby – 1.32
3 – Evgeni Malkin – 1.28
4 – Marian Gaborik – 1.15
5 – Joe Thornton – 1.13
6 – Ilya Kovalchuk – 1.13
7 – Pavel Datsyuk – 1.10
8 – Ryan Getzlaf – 1.09
9 – Jarome Iginla – 1.09
10 – Henrik Sedin – 1.07

When looking at that, it is obvious that the group of Ovechkin, Crosby and Malkin is well-above the rest and Kovalchuk falls in the next group. Let’s now take a look at the top ten in goals per games played:
1 – Alex Ovechkin – 0.75
2 – Ilya Kovalchuk – 0.6
3 – Marian Gaborik – 0.58
4 – Dany Heatley – 0.53
5 – Sidney Crosby – 0.52
6 – Jarome Iginla – 0.5
7 – Alexander Semin – 0.49
8 – Zach Parise – 0.47
9 – Rick Nash – 0.47
10 – Marian Hossa – 0.47

As you can see, Ovechkin is obviously on top but Kovalchuk is in second just ahead of Gaborik and well-ahead of Heatley, Crosby, Iginla and others.

Kovalchuk has been much more of a goal scorer than a passer in the NHL but I thought it would be interesting to take a look at his statistics in international play as well. In the past three World Championships and in the 2010 Olympics, he has recorded 10 goals and 22 assists in 30 games. Although it is a small sample, it could suggest that Kovalchuk is capable of passing the puck, but, in Atlanta, he’s been more of a goal scorer because of the talent surrounding him.

Looking at the statistics from the last three years that I presented, Marian Gaborik is the closest to Kovalchuk in both goals and points per game. Last season, Gaborik signed a deal worth 37.5 million over five years or 7.5 million per season. The difference between the two however, is that Kovalchuk has played at least 78 games in each of the past six seasons while Gaborik had not played 78 games in a season since 2002-03.

Ovechkin’s cap hit is currently 9.538 million while Crosby’s and Malkin is 8.7 million. The problem when comparing Kovalchuk with these players is that Ovechkin, Crosby and Malkin are much younger and their contracts were signed as Restricted Free Agents. For the final seven years of his twelve-year deal, Ovechkin will be making 10 million a year so we can use that as a ceiling. If we look at the next four highest paid players: Eric Staal, Vincent Lecavalier, Brad Richards and Dany Heatley all have a cap hit of at least 7.5 million. There are also a number of players making above 8 million dollars a year but who have front-loaded contracts: Scott Gomez, Chris Drury, Jason Spezza and Daniel Briere, all of whom had proven much less than Kovalchuk when signing their long-term deals.

If we put all that together, we know Kovalchuk is worth less than 10 million per season (Ovechkin) but is worth more than 8 million per season. In my opinion, Kovalchuk is worth about 72 million over the next eight seasons right now but the contract will probably be extended to ten to twelve seasons in order to reduce the cap hit. With all that said, I expect Kovalchuk to get an offer of about 85 million over ten years and in my opinion he is well worth it.

Ilya Kovalchuk however has a very interesting opportunity to increase his value while playing with the Devils. He has the opportunity to show that he is not a pure goal scorer, that he can succeed outside of Atlanta and that he can play well in the playoffs. If he does all that, it will be much easier for a GM to offer him 90 million over the next ten years.