Category: Uncategorised

NHL – Western Conference Standings Predictions

Yesterday I looked at the Eastern Conference Standings and saw that the playoff race may not be as close as it seems right now. Because of injuries and trades there will probably only be one spot available with a couple of teams fighting for it. At first look it seems that in the Western Conference there are three teams fighting for the final two spots.

My predictions are purely based on the strength of schedule (including home and away games). To find out the exact method used, just take a look at yesterday’s post. With that said, here are my Predicted Western Conference Standings:

1 – San Jose – 116
2 – Chicago – 114
3 – Vancouver – 104
4 – Phoenix – 103
5 – Los Angeles – 102
6 – Colorado – 97
7 – Nashville – 95
8 – Detroit – 94
9 – Calgary – 93
10 – St Louis – 88
11 – Dallas – 86
12 – Minnesota – 84
13 – Anaheim – 83
14 – Columbus – 78
15 – Edmonton – 61

You’ll notice that Colorado has a much tougher schedule than Nashville, Detroit and Calgary as they are expected to finish only three points ahead of Detroit, despite their six points lead at the moment. It is however quite clear that, when looking at those predicted standings, there are four teams fighting for three spots. In my opinion, the Nashville Predators are the one with the best chance to find themselves in ninth place at the end of the year.

NHL – Eastern Conference Standings Predictions

The Eastern Conference is once again very close this season and still has five or six teams fighting for two or three playoff spots. The schedule for each of these teams in these final weeks is extremely important and could decide whether or not a team makes the playoffs. So far this season, the home team has earned on average 0.24 more points than the away team so a team like the Ottawa Senators with ten road games and only five home games left, could struggle down the stretch.

The other important factor to look at obviously is the strength of opponents. In order to do this I separated all teams into six tiers based on the points per game earned so far this season. I did some analysis and a one-tier difference will mean that the team in the higher tier will earn on average 0.2 more points than the team in the lower tier. In other words, if a top-tier team (Washington, San Jose or Chicago) hosts a bottom-tier team (Toronto or Edmonton), they will earn on average 1.74 pts per game while the bottom-tier team will earn 0.5. This seems pretty accurate since the top-tier teams have 25 points in 14 games so far this year against Toronto and Edmonton.

After coming up with all those formulas, I calculated the expected average points for each team for the games left and added them up to their points total so far this season. Here are my Predicted Eastern Conference Standings:

1 – Washington – 118
2 – Pittsburgh – 103
3 – Buffalo – 102
4 – New Jersey – 102
5 – Ottawa – 96
6 – Philadelphia – 93
7 – Montreal – 88
8 – Boston – 87
9 – Atlanta – 84
10 – NY Rangers – 82
11 – Tampa Bay – 82
12 – Florida – 80
13 – Carolina – 77
14 – NY Islanders – 74
15 – Toronto – 69

There are obviously a number of factors that could affect these, the most important one being injuries. It is safe to assume that the top seven teams in those standings will qualify for the playoffs considering the Canadiens have had injuries all season long and should welcome back Mike Cammalleri and Marc-Andre Bergeron very soon. The Boston Bruins could however be in trouble after the injury to Marc Savard and the Atlanta Thrashers could also finish lower than expected (despite their easier schedule) after trading Ilya Kovalchuk. That eighth and final spot could therefore belong to the New York Rangers or even the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Check back tomorrow to see my Predicted Western Conference Standings.

NHL – The Hits to the Head Issue

Hits to the head have been discussed for the past few years in the NHL and it is now becoming more and more likely that a rule will be added next year to prevent such hits. Here are videos from the two hits this season that have generated all this talk. First was the hit by Mike Richards on David Booth and more recently the hit by Matt Cooke on Marc Savard:

David Booth and Marc Savard are two excellent hockey players that were knocked out and missed or will miss a number of games because of the effects of a hit to the head. The first question to ask ourselves is whether or not these hits add anything to the game? You can see that after each of these hits, very few people are cheering and everyone is worried about the player laying down on the ice. No one likes to see a player get injured.

I also find it very interesting to ask ourselves why elbowing has been penalized in the NHL for a very long time? The answer is pretty obvious: it’s very easy to generate power with an elbow and it’s also a part of the body that is quite hard and can severely injure someone. However, now that the equipment has changed, it doesn’t really matter how hard the elbow is. If you have hockey equipment near you, take a look at your shoulder pads and your elbow pads, I’d bet that both are as hard and you wouldn’t like to get hit with either of those. One might still argue that it’s easier to generate power with an elbow than a shoulder but when a player is coming at full speed near center ice, a player doesn’t need to generate any additional power; simply stick the elbow out and the player will get knocked down.

The reason I bring that up is that everyone is looking at the Cooke hit to see if he hit him with the elbow or the shoulder but does it really matter? Both elbow pads and shoulder pads are very hard and can make as much damage. There is no way that the NHL would ever allow elbows to the head but then why are shoulders to the head still allowed?

These hits are dangerous and add absolutely nothing to the game. I’d even say they take away from the game because they injure players who fans pay to see on the ice. It seems that the NHL will finally deal with this issue, better late than never.

Minor deals

Carolina Hurricanes trade Andrew Alberts to the Vancouver Canucks for a 7th round pick.

Anaheim Ducks acquire Joey MacDonald from the Toronto Maple Leafs for a 7th round pick in 2011.

Florida Panthers acquire Mathieu Roy from the Columbus Blue Jackets for Matt Rust.

Toronto Maple Leafs acquire Chris Peluso from the Pittsburgh Penguins for a 6th round pick.