Category: Written by Sebastian Egerton-Read – @Seb_Read

NHL Head Coaches: Hot Seat and Respecting the Job

In the NHL – and many other sports’ leagues – the decision to change the head coach is treated like a magical potion that will cure everything. Missed the playoffs? Fire the head coach. Star players underperforming? Fire the head coach. Advanced one less round in the postseason than last year? Fire the head coach. Haven’t won a Stanley Cup in four or five years? Fire the head coach.
It isn’t that changing head coaches is never the right decision, but it’s also a pretty well accepted fact that the man behind the bench is often “scapegoated” and made accountable for problems that go far beyond the realms of his influence.
In a salary cap era and in a league where there is as much parity as there ever has been, being a successful NHL head coach is tough. New coaches enter the league every year and only a select few make it past their first two seasons on the job. Coaches who enjoy initial success and are unable to maintain it don’t have the longest lifespan either.
In fact, even coaches who bring a Stanley Cup to a franchise usually only have a few seasons before job pressures begin to grow again – see Dan Bylsma, Randy Carlyle and Peter Laviolette in the post-lockout era.
Laviolette is an interesting case in point. It is clear that he is a quality NHL head coach. He won a Stanley Cup with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2005-06 and reached the Finals again with the Philadelphia Flyers in 2009-10. He is now coaching the Nashville Predators, who are sitting atop of the Central division after missing the playoffs in each of the previous two seasons.
There’s definitely an argument that Laviolette’s message is a little unsustainable. However, he pulled Philadelphia together for what was a near remarkable run to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2010, he followed that up with two second round defeats during a period when the Flyers over-hauled their team trading away Mike Richards and Jeff Carter before the 2011-12 season. He was fired just three games into the 2013-14 season. Craig Berube has hardly improved on those achievements so far with the team set to miss the playoffs for the second time in three seasons.
His Carolina team just barely missed the playoffs in 2007-08. They were 12-11-2 the next season when Laviolette was relieved of his duties. They’ve reached the postseason on just one occasion since. It’s easy to fire the head coach, but NHL teams with bad records usually have bigger problems than just their head coach.
Of course, there are always counter arguments. The Pittsburgh Penguins halfway through a season hired Bylsma at a time when Michel Therrien had the team playing above .500 hockey, after reaching the Stanley Cup finals one year earlier. Only a couple of months later, the Penguins were champions and the decision to change coaches was considered a big part of that success.
Darryl Sutter was also hired as a head coach to replace popular incumbent Terry Murray. The Kings had made a so-so- start to the 2011-12 season, but Murray was widely credited as the experienced coach who had helped the franchise reach consecutive postseasons for the first time since the early 2000s. Sutter’s success in LA is now legendary with two Stanley Cup championships to show for it.
General Managers are also in a pressure situation and most need to be seen as doing a proactive job if they want to keep it. Firing the coach is often the only obvious move they can make, especially in a league where the salary cap can make it difficult to shift bad contracts.
However, at the core of most successful franchises is alignment throughout the organization. The coach, general manager and executives work together on a clear vision, particularly as it relates to personnel and style of play. That’s been fairly obvious in many of today’s most successful partnerships including; Ken Holland and Mike Babcock in Detroit, Dave Tippett and Don Maloney in Arizona, Claude Julien and Peter Chiarelli in Boston, Darryl Sutter and Dean Lombardi in Los Angeles, and Joel Quenneville and Stan Bowman in Chicago.
These relationships don’t always have to bring about a Stanley Cup – Todd Richards and Jarmo Kekaleinen in Columbus, Jack Capuano and Garth Snow on Long Island, and Bob Hartley and Brad Treliving in Calgary are evidence of the progress that franchises can make over longer periods of time when GM and coach are on the same page.
The challenge of coaching an NHL team and the lack of job security are worthy of respect.
There’s already been four in-season head coaching changes in 2014-15 with Paul Maclean (Ottawa), Peter De Boer (New Jersey), Randy Carlyle (Toronto) and Dallas Eakins (Edmonton) losing their jobs. Here’s a quick look at the coaches who could be on the hot seat this spring with the playoffs and offseason fast approaching.
Todd McLellan – San Jose Sharks
McLellan is the longest tenured coach in serious trouble this offseason. There is a feeling that San Jose has missed its championship window and McLellan was loyally entrusted with that window. The Sharks must win all of their remaining games to stand much chance of reaching the playoffs and even then the odds are actually quite slim. Maybe the organization will put their faith in the fact that McLellan can coach, which he clearly can, but it feels more likely that he will be lost in the overhaul.
Adam Oates/Scott Stevens – New Jersey Devils
It doesn’t seem likely that the Devils will start the 2015-16 season with a dual coaching set up. The team has played better under the Oates and Stevens combination, but not great. In fairness, it’s a pretty flawed roster. It’ll be interesting to see if either of these coaches gets the chance to take the job full time this offseason, or whether Lou Lamoriello looks outside of the organization for his man.
Ted Nolan – Buffalo Sabres
The Sabres have a horrible record and no coach with that sort of record is likely to survive without questions. Nolan has inherited this situation more than he has created it, but Buffalo’s organization will presumably be making some big decisions about future direction after the next few games are out of the way.
Craig Berube – Philadelphia Flyers
Berube has lost in the first round of the playoffs and then missed the playoffs altogether. We’d point towards injuries and a flawed roster as a big source of that, but none of that saves Laviolette. Philadelphia have some core pieces, which should enable them to turn things around quickly, but will Berube be a part of that?
Bruce Boudreau – Anaheim Ducks
It’s only fair to point out that the Washington Capitals ultimately fired Boudreau because regular season success didn’t marry up to postseason success, but it certainly hasn’t gotten any better for them since he left. That doesn’t change the fact that if Anaheim doesn’t make some sort of a run in this season’s playoffs, Boudreau’s job could be on the line.
Mike Yeo – Minnesota Wild
After two seasons of consistent improvement, the Wild have endured an erratic 2014-15 campaign. It appears that Yeo has “saved” it with a strong second half run pushing seemingly securing a postseason spot, but an uncompetitive effort in a playoff series could still prove costly.
Paul Maurice – Winnipeg Jets

Maurice hasn’t had long to work with the Jets and he has them as close to a playoff spot as they have been since returning to Manitoba. However, if they lose out on a playoff spot to the Flames and Kings, expect Maurice’s job to be under review for an organization that’s starting to lose patience.

Carolina Hurricanes, New Regime and Hope In Future

The Carolina Hurricanes have been a strange franchise since the team moved from Hartford. In 16 seasons, they have only managed five appearances in the NHL playoffs, but they have made the most of those trips reaching the Stanley Cup Finals in 2002, winning it all in 2006 and reaching the conference finals in 2009.
Despite that success, fans have been deprived of a consistently competitive team. The Hurricanes have missed the playoffs in five straight seasons and in seven of the last eight. An organization that has traditionally favored stability over an “overhaul” finally broke a habit at the end of a fifth successive failure removing Jim Rutherford and Kirk Muller from their respective positions as GM and head coach in April last year.
Ron Francis was appointed as the team’s new GM and he hired former AHL coach and Detroit Red Wings assistant Bill Peter as his bench boss. It hasn’t necessarily resulted in immediate progress – Carolina holds the sixth worst record in the NHL and are set to miss the playoffs for a sixth straight year and eighth time in last eight years – but there are signs of hope for this franchise’s future.
It starts with Francis, a man who rightfully commands tremendous respect in the NHL The Hall-of-Famer was the type of player that every team wanted in its locker-room, and also out on the ice, intuitively it feels like Francis is a man who can bring a fresh and clear vision to Carolina.
It should be noted that the previous regime didn’t do a bad job of drafting and recruiting young talent. Francis inherits a roster that includes: Elias Lindholm, Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask, Riley Nash, Justin Faulk and Ryan Murphy to name just a few. The prospect cupboards aren’t completely bare either, Haydn Fleury promises to be an excellent NHL defender, while forward Brock McGinn and goaltender Alex Nedelikovic are among other notable recent draft picks.
Peters is the man charged with bringing the “Red Wings way” to this talented, but extremely young group of players. Known as a defensive specialist, Peters also has a history of coaching in the AHL where player development is a key part of the job description. His task isn’t too dissimilar here and he has spent the best part of this season learning more about what the organization possesses talent wise.
In December, a month where they went 3-10-1, the Hurricanes moved into contender status for one of the first two picks in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, many fans welcomed and even hoped for an opportunity to draft Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel. However, Peters was determined that his team would not tank and that posting a miserable record over the last three and a half months of the season would not be tolerated, even with playoff aspirations already spoiled.
The result has been a relatively competitive 18-13-7 record in 2015. A losing run at the beginning of March spoiled a combined 14-7-3 marker posted across Jan and Feb, but nonetheless, the young Canes are adapting to Peters’ system and there are reasons to be hopeful that the team’s absence from the postseason needn’t last forever.
A key piece in that turnaround will be leading scorer, captain and face of the franchise Eric Staal. The now 30-year old had struggled for production in the month of March, until he registered six points in a three-game stretch last week. 2014-15 looks set to be Staal’s worst campaign productivity wise since he scored 31 points in 2003-04 – his rookie year.
Peters has done just about everything to jump start his superstar’s production, including moving him to play on the wing last November. That decision has stuck with Staal spending most of his time paired with his brother – Jordan.
Staal didn’t have a great season in 2013-14 either. He scored just 21 goals and 61 points in 79 games. Some of it is undoubtedly talent, previous teams have been deeper and Staal has probably had wingers that better compliment his skill set. It can be challenging to retain focus and intensity on a team that doesn’t have the opportunity to seriously compete for a playoff spot.
It’ll be a challenge for Peters next season to spark his captain at the beginning of the season. Carolina are likely to start the year as a more experienced, but still exceedingly young roster, and the core of their success will still need to be regular scoring from more experienced players like Staal, his brother and Jeff Skinner (who is still only 22 himself).
The other significant area for Peters and Francis to dissect is in net. There may be some temptation to stick with a two-man set up in 2015-16, but both have expiring contracts after next year presumably forcing a decision on a definite starter.
Neither player has had an easy time of it playing behind an inexperienced blue line (even more so since Andrej Sekera was traded).
Ward is the player with a Stanley Cup on his resume and the most experience as a heavily used starter. However, he has been plagued with injuries in recent seasons and there are signs that a heavy workload might have started to take its toll on his body. He’s also always been slightly erratic between the pipes, though he backstopped both of Carolina’s recent playoff appearances impressively. Meanwhile, Khudobin has hinted at being that “lights out” starting goaltender. However, he’s never actually managed to put a full season together at that level. He doesn’t have the same wear and tear as Ward, but he’s only three years younger.

Whichever route Francis and Peters go, there is a clear vision. Expect Francis to have a busy offseason with a good stockpile of draft picks to utilize. This Hurricanes roster – with a few select additions – could have the potential to be very competitive in 2015-16. A new regime has brought new hope to this franchise.

Deciding How To Feel About Joe Thornton

It doesn’t feel that long ago that Joe Thornton was being drafted first overall. The expectations with which he entered the NHL could hardly have been higher. In many ways, he has met so many of those expectations, but at the age of 35, and with the final chapter in his career reaching its conclusion, it seems that “Jumbo Joe” will just always be something of a divisive figure.

It was hardly more evident than with the recent storyline around the aggravation between Thornton and San Jose Sharks’ GM Doug Wilson. Thornton took issue with comments made by Wilson about his time as captain and how he “couldn’t handle it”. Thornton’s reply was essentially to tell his GM to “shut it”.

On the one hand, Thornton is such a likeable person and his career achievements so respectable that it feels unprofessional for Wilson to share comments about his former captain’s weaknesses – even if it was in a relatively enclosed fans’ forum. On the other, it was hard not to acknowledge that Wilson did have a point. Hasn’t there always been something missing from Thornton’s leadership capabilities? Hasn’t there always just been something missing from his game overall? Thornton has ridden the line between high quality player and champion throughout his career.

It now feels like the two-time captain, Sharks’ all-time leading scorer and one-time league MVP will not go down as an all-time great. His profile, his career and the crucial eye test just don’t quite add up to that.

It starts with the captaincy. Somehow, Thornton has always gravitated towards leadership roles. He is generally well-liked and respected by his team mates, he has been one of the best, if not the best, players on every team he has played on. Yet, as much as he seems to be a natural candidate for the role, Thornton has never quite met expectations as a captain.

He was heavily criticised in Boston, where he was captain from 2002-2005, for being too lazy, too relaxed and for failing to step up and lead his team when it mattered most. In San Jose, opinion was left unanimously negative, but the team’s leadership structure was considered a point to review after a San Jose became only the fourth team to lose a playoff series after leading 3-0. Thornton might comment that the problems obviously run deeper than leadership given the team’s poor performance this season.

The problem is that the perception that Thornton’s teams have generally underachieved in the postseason is backed up by data. The final evaluation of players comes down to how they play when it really counts. Being the top offensive player and captain on a team that is underachieving will bring you under the microscope. Thornton’s play has never quite lived up to those expectations.
Captaincy
Thornton’s Regular Season Performance
Team Regular Season Performance
Thornton’s Postseason Performance
Team’s Postseason Performance
Bruins 2002-03
101pts in 77 games
7th East
3pts in 5 games
1st round loss 1-4 NJ
Bruins 2003-04
73pts in 77 games
2nd in East
0pts in 7 games
1st round loss 3-4 MTL
Sharks 2010-11
70pts in 80 games
2nd in West
17pts in 18 games
Conf Finals loss 1-4 VAN
Sharks 2011-12
77pts in 82 games
7th in West
5pts in 5 games
1st round loss 1-4 STL
Sharks 2012-13
40pts in 48 games
6th in West
10pts in 11 games
2nd round loss 3-4 LA
Sharks 2013-14
76pts in 82 games
4th in West
3 pts in 7 games
1st round loss 3-4 LA
There’s nothing in this table that jumps out as especially poor and with the possible exception of the 2004 loss to Montreal, there’s no shame in any of San Jose’s playoff defeats. However, there’s also nothing outstanding. Overall, the Sharks are 8-9 in playoff series since Thornton joined the team. Again there’s nothing “shameful” in that. However, only one team can lift the Stanley Cup at the end of the season – teams and individuals have to find some way to excel, some way to be better than everyone else.

There is a discrepancy between Thornton’s postseason and regular season performances.
Games
Goals/G
Assists/G
Points/G
Regular season
1275
356 (0.28)
900 (0.71)
1256 (0.99)
Postseason
132
24 (0.18)
76 (0.58)
100 (0.76)
It’s worth noting that Thornton’s points per game for San Jose in the playoffs is higher than his career average at 0.85. However, the picture is still relatively clear. Big Joe doesn’t come up big (at least on the scoreboard) when the games matter most.

A lot of it has to do with Thornton’s style of play. He excels at holding and cycling the puck, and picking out teammates with passes. He has a good shot and big body, but he has long frustrated with a refusal to use his shot more and he’s toned down the physical element of his game during his career. Under San Jose head coach Todd McLellan, he has become a better two-way player, but for the most part that has been Thornton’s game.

900 assists and 1256 points in the regular season suggest that it’s pretty effective. Thornton is likely to finish his career somewhere – if not in – the NHL’s top 10 all-time assists leaders.

However, when the hockey gets faster, more physical and tighter, it appears that Thornton’s brand of hockey is a little less proficient. Offenses are awarded in the playoffs for crashing and driving the net, getting bodies and pucks at goaltenders and playing with a higher level of offensive instinct (as opposed to calculation).

At 35 years old and with two years remaining on a contract that will pay him $6.75 million annually, it’s hard to know “where next?” for Thornton. The clock is definitely ticking on his chances of winning a Stanley Cup.

All reports suggest that Thornton has no desire to leave San Jose and that he loves the city (who can blame anyone for enjoying California). However, with San Jose set to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2001, changes are to be expected. It will surely be the “last straw” for McLellan and players like Patrick Marleau and Thornton will surely be asked to waive whatever NTCs they have for the betterment of the team.

Maybe the organization will elect to ride it out. Maybe they’ll give the team one more chance to succeed, or maybe they’ll hope that a different coach will create different results. Either way, it appears that Thornton’s image, as an NHL player, will always be as someone who never quite lived up to his talent. He’ll always straddle that line between the talented and likeable player and one whose production dropped in the playoffs.

Perhaps he has been slightly unlucky as well. San Jose have twice reached the conference finals and their last two series defeats have come to an incredibly strong LA Kings team. The Sharks have always had a strong roster, but they’ve also always probably had a piece or two missing – particularly on the blue-line.

Thornton has two seasons left on his current contract. He probably doesn’t have many more than two seasons left in his career. It’s not clear whether his final seasons will be spent for the Sharks. His best chance of erasing the Cup goose egg from his resume might be elsewhere. Either way, it looks like Thornton’s career will never quite live up to the expectations that he approached the draft podium carrying.

Mike Johnston’s Pittsburgh Penguins Are Ready To Grind

Ever since the Pittsburgh Penguins were able to acquire Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby in consecutive drafts, the word “dynasty” has been attached to the franchise’s current era. It appeared that things were on track when the Penguins reached consecutive Stanley Cup Finals – they won the championship in 2009. However, Pittsburgh hasn’t quite managed to live up to those dynastic expectations since that breakthrough Cup triumph. A new head coach, healthy superstars and a more balanced mindset might just have Pittsburgh primed for another serious Cup run.
There’s always a slightly awkward feeling when it comes to critiquing a franchise that has enjoyed the success Pittsburgh has over the last five years. They’ve reached the playoffs all five times, topped the 100-point mark three times and won the Atlantic Division twice.
However, it’s impossible to deny that – considering the talent of their core – Pittsburgh hasn’t quite met expectations since 2009. The Montreal Canadiens ground them out in 2010 and suffocated by the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2011. Goaltending and defense were exposed in a high-scoring first round series against Pennsylvania rivals, the Philadelphia Flyers. After finally “breaking through” and reaching the conference finals in confident fashion in 2013, they were totally outplayed while being swept by the Boston Bruins. Another grinding, tough loss to the New York Rangers in 2014 was the final straw for the head coach, Dan Bylsma.
It was clear that a change of philosophy was required for the Penguins. Bylsma was (slight unfortunately) fired and Mike Johnston was hired to be the team’s new head coach.
Johnston changed the team’s defensive structure to play with a greater zone focus and to require greater participation from the forward group. This has helped Pittsburgh tighten up their defense ranking fifth in the league while conceding just 2.40 goals against per game.
The personnel on the blue-line has also helped. Paul Martin, Kris Letang, Ian Cole, Rob Scuderi, Ben Lovejoy and Christian Ehrhoff form a pretty solid six-man unit and Johnston leans on each pairing, rather than focusing too heavily on any single unit.
It’s worth noting that the Penguins have hardly slipped offensively averaging 2.73 goals per game ranking 14thin the NHL. Johnston also has both special teams units ranking in the top 10.
The rookie head coach has benefitted from some fortune on the health front (assuming Malkin’s ailment is only minor). His two superstar players have each missed only a handful of games. Consequently, both are in contention for the scoring title – Crosby has 74 points and Malkin has 68. While they have two scoring titles apiece, only once before have the two generational talents been in contention for the Art Ross Trophy in the same season (2008-09 being the other).
There’s no question that it is Crosby and Malkin who make this offense click. They are capable of single-handedly driving a line each and there are only a few players in the league more dangerous on the man advantage.
Crucially, there is a real feeling that a combination of some shrewd moves made by General Manager Ray Shero and a change in philosophy and emphasis from Johnston has this Penguins’ team ready for the grind and ready to grind in this season’s playoffs.
The core of this team is still highly-skilled players in Crosby, Malkin and Kris Letang, but they have added some players who drive to and hang around the front of the net in forwards David Perron and Patric Hornqvist. Nick Spaling, Danniel Winnik, Steve Downie and Maxim Lapierre provide a nice balance of speed, physicality and a willingness to mix it up to the bottom six, while a similar grittiness can be found in the defensive pairing of Cole and Scuderi.
The Penguins are heavily reliant upon Crosby and Malkin. Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury will also once again come under the microscope after some shaky playoff performances in recent years. However, there are reasons for fans to feel optimistic about the prospects of this team to final add a second Stanley Cup to the Crosby-Malkin era.
It’s difficult to judge the way this team will play when the hockey gets serious in roughly one month’s time, but it’s hard to see them being them “out-grinded” by the Rangers, Islanders, Capitals, Canadiens or Lightning. The path through the Eastern conference in the playoffs is far from clear, but the 2015 playoffs might just be Pittsburgh’s best chance since their memorable run in 2009.
Malkin’s injury – picked up in the game against Boston on Saturday – is a reminder of how fragile Stanley Cup aspirations can be. Still, as long as they continue to grind, the Penguins will be a team to avoid when the playoffs start late next month. 

Breaking Down The Western Conference Playoff Chase

The NHL trade deadline has passed and the long regular season has entered its final quarter; no team has more than 20 games remaining on their schedule. The chase for playoff places is heating up in both conferences. However, the action is particularly tight out West where only the Arizona Coyotes and Edmonton Oilers are completely out of the race. Sports Jerseys Canada breaks down the current state of play.
Playoff Locks: Nashville, St Louis, Anaheim and Chicago
The Nashville Predators, St Louis Blues and Anaheim Ducks are in positions where it’s just about inconceivable that they wouldn’t make the playoffs. It’s reasonable to lock them. We’ll also make the slightly more contestable decision to place the Chicago Blackhawks into “lock “ status. Chicago will only be seven points ahead of the conference’s eighth seed, but the Blackhawks have a deep and talented lineup and they’d make the playoffs if they played only .500 hockey over their final 18 games.
Central Teams Hold Wildcard Spots
Winnipeg Jets – 76 points (4th – Central)
The Jets are pursuing their first postseason appearance since returning to Manitoba. This team is in the middle of the pack in every statistical category and they’ve actually been playing some of their best hockey of the season. Head coach Paul Maurice has brought NHL experience to this organization and GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has added some pieces to make this team deeper. Jiri Tlusty and Lee Stempniak aren’t ground breaking additions, but they give Maurice experience and a few more line-up options.
Winnipeg can take encouragement from a strong group of defensemen led by a top four that features Tobias Enstrom, Tyler Myers, Mark Stuart and Jacob Trouba. The Jets also have the benefit of Michael Hutchinson between the pipes. The 25-year old has gradually developed from a solid rotation option alongside Ondrej Pavelec to being the starting option. Hutchinson has a competitiveness and fight in his game that is beginning to also be the identity of Maurice’s team.
The Jets have the toughest remaining schedule in the NHL (based on winning percentage) and they don’t have a huge amount playoff experience among their core players.
Predicted Finish: 5th Central – outside of Wildcard spots
Minnesota Wild – 75 points (5th – Central)
A period of progress that started two summers ago when they signed top free agent duo Ryan Suter and Zach Parise appeared to have stalled earlier this season. A 7-2 hammering at the hands of the Pittsburgh Penguins on Jan 13 dropped the Wild to a record below .500 (18-19-5). Head coach Mike Yeo’s job was looking less secure and the Wild were in serious danger of missing out on the playoffs altogether. Since reaching near rock bottom, Minnesota has rocketed back up the standings starting on Jan 15 with a 7-0 victory over the Buffalo Sabres. They’ve posted a 16-3-2 record since that big loss to the Penguins.
Few teams can ice a fourth line featuring Kyle Brodziak, Erik Haula and Justin Fontaine, and while some of the team’s stars haven’t managed production worthy of their contracts, they’ve got a lot of high quality scoring depth. Goaltender Devan Dubnyk’s strong form has been a significant factor as the trio of Dubnyk, Darcy Kuemper and Niklas Backstrom all struggled in the early months of the season.
Predicted Finish: 4th Central – first Wildcard spot
Pacific Division Equation
The complicating factor in the NHL’s playoff qualification set up is that both division and conference standings impact who gets a postseason berth. Anaheim and two other teams from the division will reach the postseason, and two other teams could theoretically qualify as Wildcards.
Vancouver Canucks – 75 points (2nd – Pacific)
The Canucks ended up standing pat as the NHL trade deadline. This team is at an interesting point where they have an opportunity to put some distance between themselves and their rivals, but it might be just as easy to drop down the standings and out of a playoff place altogether. The Canucks have a ton of injuries right now with Ryan Miller, Alexander Edler, Alex Burrows, Christopher Tanev and Kevin Bieksa all currently sidelined. However, they play eight of their next 12 games on home ice and, based on winning percentage of opposition, have the easiest remaining schedule in the Western conference.
GM Jim Benning and head coach Willie Desjardins have constructed a different kind of team compared to the one that missed out on the playoffs altogether in 2013-14 and even the team that managed to win just one game in the two previous playoffs combined. These Canucks play with a little extra grit and are finding ways to overachieve.
Predicted Finish: 2nd Pacific
Calgary Flames – 72 points (3rd – Pacific)
It has been five seasons since the Flames last made the postseason and Bob Hartley’s group still has a lot of work to do before they break that streak. It starts by continuing to compete on their current seven-game Eastern road-swing (2-2 so far) and it will involve surviving without captain and important defenseman Mark Giordano. As Calgary’s former core gradually departed Alberta during a period where the franchise was in decline, Giordano remained and his role has grown. He has emerged as the leader and a genuine #1 blue liner during a difficult period for the Flames. He is second on the team in scoring and has played a lot of the team’s critical minutes over the past two seasons.
It’s not going to be easy to replace Giordano. T.J. Brodie assumes more responsibility, while Hartley will be hoping that he can get experienced stay-at-home defenseman Ladislav Smid back into the lineup sooner rather than later. The forward group will also have to pick up some of the slack. Youngsters Johnny Gadreau, Sean Monahan, Lance Bouma, Joe Colborne and Josh Joories will have to face that pressure and raise their games in the last two months.
Predicted Finish: 5th Pacific – outside of Wildcard spots
Los Angeles Kings – 72 points (4th in Pacific)
Are the LA Kings coming or are they slumping? It appeared that the Kings had finally worked things out after an erratic first four months when they reeled off eight straight wins in February. However, they then lost three straight before snapping that skid with a 5-2 win over the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday night.
The defending champions are a difficult team to figure out. They have experience, talent, depth and goaltending, but all season long they’ve struggled to establish themselves. They won’t be overly concerned about playoff seeding after twice winning the Stanley Cup as a lower seed. However, maybe they should be a little more worried about getting into the playoffs at all.
Head coach Darryl Sutter will know that there are two players in particular who can help get this team moving in the right direction – Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty. Kopitar has just 13 goals and 48 points through 60 games – the worst scoring pace of his career. After managing just two assist in the previous five games, he had an explosion of sorts on Tuesday with a three-point night against the Oilers. Meanwhile, Doughty is the spark plug that connects LA’s stingy defense to its occasionally anemic offense; the importance of his play is increase by the absence of Slava Voynov, though the addition of Andrej Sekera will help.
Predicted Finish: 4th Pacific – second Wildcard spot
San Jose Sharks – 72 points (5th in Pacific)
After an era of consistently reaching the postseason, but never making it to the Stanley Cup finals, Sharks’ GM Doug Wilson suggested that he was ready to overhaul his team last offseason. Those plans were rapidly aborted for a somewhat “tamer” set of adjustments. He may yet regret not following through on his initial promise if San Jose doesn’t find a way to at least sneak into the playoffs.
The next week will be an important one for the Sharks. They play Vancouver, Pittsburgh, Nashville and Chicago at home (all tough games) before embarking on a seven-game road trip that takes them into April. Todd McLellan’s team have oddly been a little better away from the Shark Tank this team posting a 17-11-3 record and they’ll need to keep that level of play up to continue their push towards the postseason.
The Outsiders

The Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars are still potentially in contention, so we don’t want to rule them out. Both have young rosters, slightly porous defenses and would need to win a huge proportion of their games, or require the complete collapse of multiple teams. Neither of those scenarios feel particularly likely and the Avalanche and Stars are not serious contenders in the Western conference playoff picture.

Will The Real Boston Bruins Please Stay Standing?

It would be entirely forgivable if Boston Bruins General Manager Peter Chiarelli misjudges the upcoming NHL trade deadline. For the past couple of months, it has been difficult to judge whether the Bruins are a sleeping giant waiting for everything to come together to be the contender most anticipated they would be before the season started, or whether they are simply a team that lacks depth and balance.
A playoff berth has not been secured, and yet many would still mark the 2013/2014 President Trophy winners as a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.
The past weekend’s contests struck a blow for the later. Despite being denied two centers (David Krejci and Gregory Campbell) through injury and with starting goaltender Tuukka Rask dealing with illness, the Bruins secured back-to-back comfortable victories relying on organizational depth and based first and foremost on the foundation of strong team defense. Boston finished February winning three of their last four games and opening up a four-point cushion for the second Wild Card spot in the Eastern conference.
The problem is that the period of success was preceded by six straight losses. During that span, the Bruins were outscored 26-13 and looked to be in disarray. Just about every aspect of a team that has been known for reliable three-zone hockey over the past four or five seasons seemed to be wrong. All of that has come back over the last week; from Tuukka Rask, to three good defensive pairings, to four-line deep forward corps, the Bruins looked every bit a playoff team that any top seed would want to avoid.
Monday’s trade deadline will be a test for Chiarelli. This is clearly a team that could use veteran depth, but he also has a number of expiring contracts to contemplate and some cap magic to work both now and also ahead of the 2015/16 season.
He went “all-in” ahead of the 13/14 campaign trading Tyler Seguin, while adding Jarome Iginla, Loui Eriksson and Reilly Smith. At previous points in his career, he has shown patience and a willingness to stand pat if the right deal is not on the table. However, there might be a little added pressure this time around as numerous reports have suggested that a failure to reach the postseason could cost the GM his job.  
The story for much of the season has been injuries to the team’s key players. Blue liner Zdeno Chara missed a stretch of 19 games from mid-October to mid-December. It’s difficult to quantify Chara’s full impact when it comes to the Bruins. He is a perennial Norris Trophy candidate, but more than that, his shutdown presence and the sheer amount of ice time he is capable of playing have allowed Chiarelli and head coach Claude Julien to construct a roster and a system with Chara at its core. The 37-year old is also the team’s captain and he leads its gritty, hard-working and physical identity. He hasn’t missed more than five games in a season since arriving in Boston in 2006. Even beyond the 19 games that he was absent from, Chara was slow to return to full game fitness and has never quite fully established himself as a dominant shutdown force this season.
The other major injury concerns have been Krejci. The team’s best offensive player and a key part of the team’s leading duo down the middle (Patrice Bergeron is the other), Krejci has been in and out of the lineup all season and often visibly struggling during his time in the lineup. Last week it was announced that he would miss 4-6 weeks with a partially torn MCL. Optimistically, he’ll be back in time for most of the stretch drive, but realistically, he could well miss all but the last couple weeks of the regular season.
His injury creates an even greater predicament for Chiarelli. Without Krejci, this team is missing a key part of its top six, power-play and also an important leader on the team. The 28-year old had 49 points in 47 games during Boston’s two recent runs to the Stanley Cup finals, leading the postseason in scoring each time. The Bruins aren’t likely to cause any upsets without a fully healthy David Krejci.
Still, the Bruins have managed to win three out of four since the loss of their top center. In fact, the lineup has really come together since Krejci was sidelined. Bergeron-Marchand-Smith and Soderberg-Eriksson-Paille have been effective combinations, while Ryan Spooner and David Pastrnak have joined Milan Lucic as the trio that has arguably been Boston’s most dangerous offensively. Pastrnak has one goal and three assists, Spooner has a goal (the overtime winner against the Devils) and two assists, and Lucic has a pair of goals and an assist.
Throw in the fact that Brian Ferlin has done a pretty decent job on the team’s fourth line alongside Chris Kelly, and that Dennis Seidenberg and Matt Bartkowski have managed to play a couple of games without looking terrible, and Chiarelli might be forgiven for thinking that this year’s Bruins still have a chance to come together – maybe they could even avenge last spring’s loss to the Montreal Canadiens.
Of course, trade deadline acquisitions usually come at a steep price and Chiarelli won’t want to sabotage the team’s potential competitiveness next season.
There’s just something not quite right about this version of Julien’s Bruins. They rank 10th in the league in goals against per game (still pretty good) conceding 2.50 on average, but it’s their worst performance in that category since the coach’s first season in 2007/08, when the team grabbed the eighth seed in the Eastern conference conceding 2.62 GA/G ranking them 11th in the league.
That 07/08 roster needed Glen Metropolit to act as the team’s second line center for much of the campaign. It played with grit, determination and heart to beat most expectations by reaching the postseason at all. They got the most out of what they had, and for the most part, that has been the mantra of Julien-led teams, even if they endured a couple of postseason disappointments before that 2011 Cup win.
Another characteristic of recent Boston teams is the ability to score first and to then hold on to that lead and close out games. They’ve regularly ranked in the top 10 in that category. Last season they won 84% of games after scoring first (they won a lot of games full stop). That has dropped to winning just 67% of the time when scoring first so far in 14/15. During their recent losing run, the Bruins gave up a 3-0 lead against the Calgary Flames, and even the victory against New Jersey on Friday only came in overtime after Boston had allowed a 2-0 advantage to slip.
A lack of speed was highlighted as a potential problem for this roster heading into the season. Perhaps Chara has just lost a step or two, or perhaps Julien’s message isn’t reaching his players anymore. Perhaps it has just been an odd year for this franchise. Chiarelli faces some challenges as he attempts to assess this roster. He’ll be hoping that the real Bruins are the team that has been as consistent as any other in the NHL over the past seven seasons, and he’ll be hoping that those Boston Bruins stand up and stay standing for the rest of what has been a tumultuous season for this organization.

By the time the Bruins next play, at home against Calgary on Thursday, Chiarelli will have made his judgment on this team and the trade market. 

Strong Defense Has Blackhawks Primed For Third Title In Six Years

The Chicago Blackhawks have been one of the NHL’s most dynamic and offensively dangerous teams over the past seven seasons. It’s not surprising that Joel Quenneville’s side has been difficult to stop considering that they have iced a lineup featuring the likes of Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa and Patrick Sharp, not to mention defensemen Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook. However, in 2014-15, strong team defense and stingy all-round play has been the real story in Chicago, while the offense has struggled for consistency. Fans will be keen to see their star players rack up the points, but strong defensive play is a terrific sign that the Blackhawks might be ready to make it three Stanley Cup titles in six years.
In many ways, the 2014-15 NHL regular season has been nothing more than ordinary for the Blackhawks. They currently sit in third place in the Central division and the former offensive powerhouse hasn’t been as much of a powerhouse so far this year.
Defense Wins Championships
The reason for the success of Chicago this year has been a defensive unit that – potentially to the surprise of some – is arguably the best in the league. They currently rank third in the NHL conceding just 2.26 goals per game. Quenneville also has the penalty kill working tenaciously hard and using its speed to disrupt man advantage units. Chicago’s penalty kill is the best in the league killing off 87.9% of opponents’ chances. It helps that this team spends very little time shorthanded too.
The defensive corps is led by one of the NHL’s top pairings in Keith and Seabrook, who make big plays at both ends of the ice. The second pairing of Niklas Hjmarlsson-Johnny Oduya is underrated; they play a high standard of shutdown hockey. It’s been a struggle to find the right players to round out the blue line. Michal Rozsival, David Rundblad, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Tim Erixon and Kyle Cumiskey have all seen time as Quenneville tries to find the right balance often splitting up the top tandem of Keith-Seabrook.
Equally crucial to the Blackhawks defensive success has been hard-working defensive hockey played by a forward group that creates turnovers and disrupts offenses with aggressive and high-octane fore-checking and back checking. Possession hockey also plays a critical role in this team’s style of play and that takes pressure off of the defense.
Goaltending Tandem
The other part of the equation is a goaltending tandem that has quietly enjoyed a lot of success. Corey Crawford has established himself as a reliable starting goaltender, but there has always been a feeling that the 30-year is at his most effective when he shares the load (like most goaltenders actually). There’s no doubt that the emergence of Antti Raanta has helped both Crawford and the team. The 25-year old has posted a .938 save percentage and 1.80 GAA in 13 games and will be a viable option to ensure that Crawford enters playoffs well-rested. That’s more bad news for Chicago’s competition.
Strong defensive play and improved goaltending doesn’t take away from the identity of this team, which is still led by dynamic duo Toews and Kane. There are few teams with a better battle tested and deeper offensive group. Richards has a history of showing up in the postseason, expect Shaw’s line to be better as well. It’s hard to believe that these Blackhawks won’t score goals in the playoffs when they need to. Even now, Chicago ranks eighth in the league in terms of goals per game and its power-play unit ranks 13th. Those are not terrible numbers by any means.
Weak Western conference?
Maybe it’s an exaggeration to suggest that the NHL’s Western conference is “weak”, but aren’t too many elite contenders either. The defending champions LA Kings are looking a little worn out and battle to try and make the playoffs at all. The San Jose Sharks are in a similar battle just to reach the postseason. The Anaheim Ducks and St Louis Blues are once again high up the regular season rankings, but neither team’s goaltending situations feels trustable and there are usually reasons that teams endure prolonged periods of postseason disappointment. Maybe the “time has come” for one of these two, but Chicago should fancy their chances in a seven game series against either.
The Nashville Predators lead the conference of course. There’s a little bit of 2013-14 Colorado Avalanche about that group. The Avs got knocked out in the first round after finishing second in the West and have slumped to last place in the Central division this year.
Chicago has been as good and consistent as any NHL team over the past six years, winning the Stanley Cup in 2010 and 2013, and reaching the conference finals in 2009 and 2014. Last year, they came very close to a second straight Stanley Cup Finals appearance only just being edged out in Game 7 overtime as a part of a classic series against the LA Kings. It’s hard to believe that the Blackhawks wouldn’t have eased past the New York Rangers just as the Kings did. Jonathan Toews and his teammates will know that they were very close to adding to their already impressive history.
They’re getting a little closer to making up for last year’s disappointing conclusion. In 2012-13, the last year that the Blackhawks won the cup, they finished with the best goals against average in the NHL. As good as last season’s team was, they finished outside the top 10 in terms of goals conceded. History suggests that Chicago are a team to watch out for when they are clicking defensively.

No team has an unlimited window in which to try and win Stanley Cups, even one with a core featuring Kane, Toews, Keith and Seabrook. This year’s group isn’t perfect and GM Stan Bowman will already be reviewing options in terms of adding veteran pieces for a deep playoff run.

Mike Babcock, the Jack Adams and Young Red Wings

The Detroit Red Wings appear likely to extend their professional sports best 23-season consecutive postseason appearance streak. During that period, the Red Wings have won four Stanley Cup championships, and have established themselves as one of the most well run organizations in professional North American sports.
Head coach Mike Babock has only been in Detroit for nine of those playoff appearances and for just one Stanley Cup. However, his achievements in the NHL’s salary cap era are arguably as great, if not greater, than some of the storied names that played a critical role in building the franchise’s formidable reputation in the 90s.
A major outcome from the lockout in 2004-05 was the introduction of a salary cap, the goal being to address the league’s competitive balance (as well as help small market teams to make some money). The evidence suggests that that effort has been successful. Of the 16 teams that made the postseason in 2013-14, only six have made the playoffs in five or more consecutive seasons. Three of those (Los Angeles, Chicago and Pittsburgh) endured extended runs of being mediocrity stocking up on high draft picks to build a new strong core. Only one other team, the San Jose Sharks, has reached the NHL playoffs in every season since the introduction of the cap.
Credit isn’t often given to it, but the salary cap has severely affected Detroit. This team has been built around a core of elite players most notably Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk, Nicklas Lidstrom and Niklas Kronwall for some time. However, the rosters constructed around those players have been carefully molded and their potential maximized by Babcock’s coaching. The likes of Johan Franzen, Tomas Holmstrom, Jiri Hudler, Mikael Samuelsson, Justin Abdelkader and Darren Helm have been developed the “Red Wing way”, which has become synonymous with the “Babcock way”.
Babcock has yet to win a Jack Adams award and has even come under fire at times during a five-year span in which Detroit has failed to advance past the second round in the playoffs. Of the coaches who have won the Jack Adams since 2006, only Claude Julien (2009 – Boston), Dave Tippett (2010 – Arizona), Ken Hitchcock (2012 – St Louis) and Patrick Roy (2014 – Colorado) are still in their current positions. Some credit should be attributed to the Red Wings’ organization and General Manager Ken Holland, but it’s also a vindication of Babcock’s abilities and longevity.
The lack of personal accolades won’t bother a man like Babcock and the team’s lack of postseason success since appearing in the 2008 and 2009 Finals (winning in 2008) will have frustrated him. The perception that just about anyone could coach the Red Wings into the playoffs is false. Babcock has excelled while navigating a challenging landscape.
Perhaps the 2014-15 season came along at just the right time. Injuries ravaged Detroit’s lineup in 2013-14 and they limped into the postseason missing key personnel. The Boston Bruins promptly dispatched them in five games to end their season. The difficulties of 13/14 combined with the age of leading forwards Zetterberg (34) and Datsyuk (36) led many writers and analysts to take the bold move of predicting an end to the Red Wings’ remarkable postseason run. Very few experts anticipated Detroit to be anything more than a borderline playoff team. In a league that loves the underdog, Babcock finally had the opportunity to play the “loveable” role.
For all of this roster’s perceived weaknesses, this is a team that Babcock has developed and it’s clear that he feels very comfortable coaching this group. The Red Wings have been on fire since the calendar turned to 2015 and are in legitimate contention to win the Atlantic division. Few teams have been more balanced this season. Detroit ranks seventh in the NHL in goals scored per game and fifth in fewest goals conceded per game. They have the top ranked power play clicking at an almost remarkable 25.5% and the ninth best penalty kill.
It has certainly helped that the team’s top players in Zetterberg, Datsyuk and Kronwall have mostly stayed healthy, but it’s not as if this team hasn’t faced adversity. Most recently the Red Wings have had to roll with third string goaltender Petr Mrazek with both Jimmy Howard and Jonas Gustavsson sidelined. They keep finding ways to win.
The secret to that success has been the development of the organization’s young players. In a league that has got used to prospects making an impact within two or three years of being drafted, Gustav Nyqvist and Tomas Tatar are rarities. They are now rarities that most teams in the NHL would dearly like to have.
After several seasons playing for the AHL’s Grand Rapids, Nyqvist, 25, and Tatar, 24, established themselves as full time NHL players last season. They were forced into top six roles by injuries last season. Both players excelled, but neither registered a point in the playoff series against Boston.
This season, playing on lines with Zetterberg and Datsyuk, there’s a clear maturity and well roundedness to their games that suggests that they won’t disappear in a playoff series again. The organization’s (and Babcock’s) belief in the duo has been rewarded.
Youth development has been the key to the fortification of the line-up in other places as well. Riley Sheahan may not get the same level of attention as Tatar and Nyqvist, but the former first round pick has played a valuable role centering a number of different lines. Even Babcock has had serious difficulties coaching the blue-line since Nicklas Lidstrom’s retirement in 2012. The maturation of Dan DeKeyser has helped to balance the group out.
The cultivation of a young talent is crucial for any franchise hoping to compete consistently in the salary cap era. It isn’t an attribute often associated with Babcock, but that might just be one more thing that has gone unnoticed in Motown.
Babcock has been fortunate in one respect. He has had the opportunity to work for one of the game’s finest GMs in Ken Holland. The 59-year old’s patience and vision has been equally crucial to Detroit’s seemingly endless success. Negotiations over a new contract have apparently been set-aside until the end of the season. Reports suggesting that Babcock could be set to become the highest paid coach with a contract worth more than $3 million suggest that Holland is under no illusions about his coach’s importance to this team’s success.

Detroit’s head coach won’t be thinking about a new contract, and he won’t be thinking about the Jack Adams. He’ll be thinking about how to develop and construct this team to be a serious contender in the upcoming postseason. Even if Holland is able to add reinforcements at the deadline, this is a very young team that will be tested in April. You can be sure that Mike Babcock will be ready for that challenge, even if he doesn’t get too much credit for it.